Businesses Most Likely To Close

MIAMI–Credit unions looking to stay ahead of the curve on which of their small business members are most likely to be struggling as the result of the coronavirus pandemic might want to pay attention to an analysis by an economist well known to many.

Dr. Elliot Eisenberg, the former senior economist with the National Association of Home Builders who is now chief economist for GraphsandLaughs, LLC, and a frequent speaker to credit unions when physical events were being held. Has looked at recent data on business closures to identify verticals according to failure rate, as well as the states in which the most businesses are closing.

According to Eisenberg, restaurants have been hit hardest. In particular, he said breakfast and brunch restaurants have been closing at a rate of 57/1,000, just slightly ahead of “burger joints,” which have closed at a rate of 56/1,000.

Specifically, the analysis found Michelin-starred restaurants in the U.S. have closed at an astounding 860/1,000.

At the other end of the spectrum, he said law firms (1.6.1,000), architects (2/1,000) and accountants (2.9/1,000 have been least likely to close).

Eisenberg’s analysis also found Hawaii has seen the highest rate of business closure at 22.8 per 1,000, followed by California at 19 per 1,000.

Eisenberg’s analysis comes at the same time numerous reports have found a surge in new business start-ups driven by would-be entrepreneurs who have lost jobs or are looking to change careers as the pandemic continues.