San Francisco Fed says Europe may pull US back into recession

San Francisco Fed says Europe may pull US back into recession:

Researchers from the Federal Banks of San Francisco and Kansas City say the odds of a U.S. recession in 2012 are greater than 50% because of the European debt crisis.

The figure below shows the recession-probability forecasts. The lines represent complex Leading Economic Index-based predictions the researchers previously made.

"To interpret these predictions, think about an experiment in which two coins are flipped, with heads representing recession and tails expansion," the researchers say in an economic report.

"One coin represents the recession odds from domestic factors, the other coin from international factors. The figure below shows the probabilities of flipping heads with the domestic and international coins. The overall probability of recession is reflected in the thick blue line."

The combination of the two recession coins, shown in the combined risks line, indicates the odds are greater than 50% that we will experience a recession sometime early in 2012, the Fed researchers say.

Back in September, fund managers surveyed by Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAC: 6.05 0.00%) said they believe Europe will slide into a recession in the coming months.

Roughly 68% of survey respondents viewed the euro zone debt crisis among the largest of risks to global investments.

In the next few months, the odds of a U.S. recession due to domestic factors appear reasonably contained, the researchers say. Those odds increase gradually and reach about 30% in the second half of 2012, after which, they decline. Recession odds based on international factors peak at about 45% toward the end of 2011, but decline rapidly thereafter.

"The message is clear. Prudence suggests that the fragile state of the U.S. economy would not easily withstand turbulence coming across the Atlantic," the report states.

"A European sovereign debt default may well sink the United States back into recession. However, if we navigate the storm through the second half of 2012, it appears that danger will recede rapidly in 2013," they conclude.

Write to Justin T. Hilley.

Follow him on Twitter @JustinHilley.

Comments

Cutting Through The Stablecoin Noise—What Credit Unions Actually Need To Know Now

By Ray Birch DOVER, Del.—By any measure, stablecoins have quickly become one of the most talked-about—and least understood—topics in credit union boardrooms. The pressure to “do something” is building, fueled by headlines, fintech momentum and a growing fear of being left behind. But according to InvestiFi CEO Kian Sarreshteh, that urgency may be misplaced. “There’s a lot of FOMO right now,” Sarreshteh said. “If I don’t adopt a stablecoin solution this year, I’m going to be left behind. I would argue pretty strongly that’s very far from the truth.” Instead of rushing to sign up for a Stablecoin pilot, Sarreshteh said credit unions should begin with a more fundamental question: what problem are you actually trying to solve? While stablecoins are often discussed as a potential challenger to traditional payment rails dominated by Visa and Mastercard, he believes that kind of mass-market disruption remains years away—especially in the U.S., where consumers already have fast, convenient opt...

Read Complete Article HERE>»

Senate Banking To Vote Thursday On Landmark Digital Assets Bill

“NCOFCU appreciates the Senate Banking Committee’s continued work during next week’s markup hearing to establish a clear and responsible regulatory framework for digital assets,” said the National Council of Fire Fighter Credit Unions (NCOFCU) leadership. “As lawmakers consider this legislation, it is essential that first responder credit unions are recognized as a vital part of the financial services ecosystem and are not overlooked in the evolving digital asset landscape. Credit unions serving police, fire, EMS, and other emergency personnel must have equitable access to innovation, regulatory clarity, and the tools necessary to continue supporting the financial readiness and resilience of America’s first responders.” Grant Sheehan CEO WASHINGTON—The Senate Banking Committee will vote on the long-awaited CLARITY Act this Thursday, Committee Chairman Tim Scott (R-SC) announced Friday. Tim Scott The announcement marks a potentially major step forward for legislation that would establis...

Read Complete Article HERE>»

The First Social Network

Credit Unions: The Original Social Network Long before likes, follows, shares, and friend requests, people built networks another way: They showed up for each other. That’s essentially how credit unions began. Not as financial corporations, but as human networks built on trust, shared experiences, and mutual support. In many ways, credit unions were the first true social networks. Before Technology Connected People, Communities Did Today’s social platforms promise connection. They help people share ideas, ask questions, organize communities, and support causes. But more than a century ago, credit unions were already doing something remarkably similar — only in person and with real financial stakes involved. Teachers gathered with teachers. Factory workers organized with coworkers. Church members helped fellow congregants. Military personnel supported military families. Firefighters stood beside fellow first responders. Police officers supported the communities and d...

Read Complete Article HERE>»

Meeting Portals - Why Choose MyBoardPacket.com

MyBoardPacket is known as the simplest, most secure, and affordable online board packet solution. A low monthly fee, with no setup fee, no annual contracts, free customer support and unlimited users! We use MyBoardPacket.com here at NCOFCU, and we love it! Exclusive discount of 25% for NCOFCU Members! Additional discounts are granted for small asset size credit unions! Why choose MyBoardPacket over other meeting portals? The Facts: MyBoardPacket was the first secure board portal on the market, starting in 2001. So easy to use that no training is required! However, for your peace of mind, you have unlimited support and training with your very own Trainer, which any Admin can schedule whenever needed. Unlimited users , committees, and meetings from anywhere! On MyBoardPacket everyone is on the same page . Month-to-month subscription – our customers are with MyBoardPacket because they love it, not because they are locked into a lengthy contract! MyBoar...

Read Complete Article HERE>»

Just Out! - NCUA Stablecoin Plan Opens Door To Credit Union-Backed Digital Dollar Issuers

ALEXANDRIA, Va.—A sweeping new NCUA proposal to implement the GENIUS Act could open the door for credit union-backed stablecoin issuance, but only through separately licensed subsidiaries operating under an extensive new federal regulatory framework that limits risks to the Share Insurance Fund. The 269-page supplemental proposed rule issued Friday lays out how “permitted payment stablecoin issuers” affiliated with federally insured credit unions would be supervised, examined and regulated by the NCUA, while also establishing rules covering reserves, liquidity, custody, operational risk, cybersecurity, anti-money laundering compliance and disclosure standards. The proposal supplements an earlier February 2026 proposal by the agency focused primarily on licensing and investments in stablecoin issuers. Federally insured credit unions themselves would still be prohibited from directly issuing payment stablecoins under the GENIUS Act. Instead, issuance would have to occur through a separa...

Read Complete Article HERE>»

Syracuse Fire Department Credit Union

p This just in - shared branching is HERE! What's shared branching? If you aren't nearby, you can visit a shared branching location throughout the country to perform a number of actions such as deposits, withdrawals, and loan payments. Traveling and need funds? Need a check while you're out of town? Try shared branching! More information and locations available on our website! https://www.syrfirecu.com/shared-branching/

Read Complete Article HERE>»

Vizo Financial and TCT Risk Solutions Announce Strategic Partnership

Vizo Financial and TCT Risk Solutions Announce Strategic Partnership to Enhance Risk Management Offerings Greensboro, N.C. (May 6, 2026) – Vizo Financial and TCT Risk Solutions are pleased to announce a new strategic partnership designed to expand and strengthen risk management solutions for credit unions. This partnership brings together Vizo Financial’s trusted role as a cooperative provider of back-office support, consulting and education with TCT Risk Solutions’ specialized risk management tools, which include credit migration, loan and deposit pricing, CECL, and asset liability modeling. Through this collaboration, Vizo Financial will offer TCT's signature software and advisory capabilities, equipping credit unions with actionable insights to better understand risk, optimize financial performance and make more informed strategic decisions. The partnership aims to help credit unions move beyond reactive risk m...

Read Complete Article HERE>»

The Rebounding Relevance of Adjustable-Rate Mortgages = By Kevin Hearden & Steve Rick

This traditional mortgage lending product could help CUs attract high-contributing members and boost much-needed interest income. By Kevin Hearden & Steve Rick | August 19, 2022 at 03:33 PM Today, nearly three-quarters (72%) of credit unions’ total revenues come from interest income. So, when interest earnings as a percent of assets dropped almost 30% in April of this year, more than one alarm bell sounded within the movement. Credit union leaders across the country are rightly concerned about the sustainability of mortgage lending within what is already a highly competitive environment. In fact, lending executives participating in a May 2022 MGIC survey ranked the expected difficulty of 2022 at an eight out of 10. And while shiny startup strategies for boosting interest income make the headlines, it may be the resurgence of a traditional mortgage lending product that makes the difference. Borrowers Give ARMs a Fresh Look We’re talking, of c...

Read Complete Article HERE>»

OMNICOMMANDER Launches OMNIPLAY: Real-Time Digital Display Software Built for Financial Institutions

SANTA ROSA BEACH, FL / ACCESS Newswire / May 29, 2025 / OMNICOMMANDER, the industry leader in digital marketing solutions for financial institutions, is proud to announce the launch of its newest innovation, OMNIPLAY , a game-changing digital display software that empowers banks and credit unions to take full control of their in-branch messaging. For years, financial institutions have struggled to manage content on their lobby TVs, relying on flash drives, tangled cords, and outdated software that was not designed for their industry. OMNIPLAY changes that forever. Designed exclusively for financial institutions, OMNIPLAY provides users with a secure and intuitive dashboard to manage and update content across all branch locations in real-time. From branded video and rate promotions to financial education and community announcements, institutions can now drag, drop, and go live with no tech expertise required. "We created OMNIPLAY to solve a real pain poin...

Read Complete Article HERE>»

Hood: Credit unions are safe and sound

Hood’s term on the NCUA Board will expire in August. NCUA Board Member Rodney Hood appeared via live stream with Brad Barnes, Air Academy Credit Union, and Amy McGraw, Tropical Financial Credit Union. The regulator lauds strong membership, asset, and loan growth. Despite recent headwinds, including high-profile bank failures, the credit union movement is still safe and sound, says Rodney Hood, NCUA board member, and immediate past chairman. “We’re not seeing the contagion like at other financial institutions,” says Hood, who addressed the 2023 CUNA Finance Council Conference Monday via live stream. The Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) crisis was one of confidence, he says. Ninety percent of SVB’s deposits were uninsured. In comparison, more than 91% of credit union deposits are insured. “We don’t have those entanglements,” Hood says. “That bodes well for our future.” He lauded America’s 4,800 credit unions for growing membership to 135 million, assets to $2.2 trill...

Read Complete Article HERE>»

First-responder Credit Union Newsroom

Search This Blog