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Showing posts from August, 2022

Can’t Pay the Rent: Number of Small Biz Having Challenges Rises

CUToday BOSTON– Some 40% of small business owners could not pay their August rent on time and in full, up 6% from July, according to Alignable’s August Rent Report . Prior to the most recent analysis,  the highest rent delinquency rate in 2022 was 35% . “Beyond that, the 40% rent delinquency rate is the highest in nearly 18 months, reflecting the all of the forces hindering the recovery of many small businesses,” Alignable said. The new survey is based on a poll conducted from Aug. 13-23 among 7,331 randomly selected small business owners. The survey found only 23% say they've fully recovered to their pre-COVID revenue levels (down 2% from July). “This is the worst monthly recovery rate we’ve tracked in the past year,” the company said. Other Fin

Many Workers Lack Awareness of What’s in Their Retirement Account (and Want Help)

With inflation running rampant – year-on-year inflation sat at 8.5% in July – individuals have to invest. But according to a new survey from Principal Financial Group , that’s something most workers aren’t comfortable doing. The survey , which looked at data from almost 700 U.S. residents, found that while a third of workers said they were comfortable making their own investments, more than half said they wanted someone else to make their investment decisions to help them reach their retirement goals. This creates a huge opportunity for plan sponsors and advisors. In fact, almost one in three workers said they didn’t even know what their money was invested in, and the number one feeling reported by investors was “not confident,” according to the survey data. While exact reasons for this discomfort varied, there were a few main concerns which united survey respondents, including worrying about not being able to keep up with inflation; fears of long periods of investment l

NCUA to Distribute $395 Million Under Corporate System Resolution Program

  NCUA to Distribute $395 Million Under Corporate System Resolution Program ALEXANDRIA, Va. (August 29, 2022) – The National Credit Union Administration, in its role as liquidating agent, announced a $313 million distribution to more than 400 members and paid in capital shareholders of the former Members United, Constitution, and U.S. Central corporate credit unions. NCUA will also distribute $82 million in dividends to more than 1,100 shareholders of Southwest Corporate. NCUA completed capital distributions to Southwest Corporate capital holders last year. “The NCUA has reached another milestone in winding down the remaining asset management estates under the successful Corporate System Resolution Program,” Chairman Todd M. Harper said. “Thanks to the diligent efforts of the NCUA team over more than a decade, we continue to fulfill our fiduciary responsibility to return these funds to capital holders. As a result, the federally insured credit unions receiving these distributions

Car Loan or Rent? As Car Prices Hit New Highs, So Do Auto Loan Payments

  COSTA MESA, Calif.–With the cost of the average new vehicle loan hitting a record-high of $40,290 during Q2, the average monthly payment for a new vehicle loan rose to $667 in the second quarter, up nearly 15% from a year earlier, according to new data from Experian. The average amount borrowed rose 13.2%, Experian added, while the length of the average new vehicle loan stayed flat in the second quarter compared to a year ago at just over 69 months. Used car buyers also are borrowing more. The average used vehicle loan jumped 18.7% to $28,534, with an average monthly payment of $515, up 17%, Experian said. Experian further noted that loan data show that more consumers are opting for a used car or truck as new vehicle prices

The St. Louis Fed said that research shows that historically checking and savings rates show almost no response to the increase in the federal funds rate and have been near zero since the 2007-09 financial crisis.

 ST. LOUIS–As it is becoming more costly for people to hold not only cash but also bank deposits, new liquidity pressures are being felt by both financial institutions and depositors, creating a “liquidity premium,” according to new research by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank. With the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raising the federal funds rate at its past four meetings, the St. Louis Fed has released new research that investigates the links between monetary policy and its macroeconomic effects, including in the 2022 tightening cycle. “Imagine a simple world where you can choose between three assets: cash, deposits, or bonds. Cash is the most liquid asset but pays no interest,” the St. Louis Fed stated. “Deposits, such as checking, savings, or time deposits, are less liquid than cash, but they pay rates set by the bank. Bonds are the least liquid among these assets, and assume, for simplicity, that bonds pay the federal funds rate. Banks raise deposits and crea

3 Ways to Appreciate Loyal Employees and Increase Retention

With 4.2 million quits in June 2022 , according to a recent Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report, companies are working to find ways to retain their current talent and create a welcoming, inclusive environment for their employees. Notably, a Deloitte survey finds that 72% of employees would consider leaving their current organization for another with better diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) initiatives. Many organizations are turning to improved DEI programs, flexibility benefits, employee wellbeing opportunities, and even raises to retain their top talent in the post-pandemic workforce. In addition to increased compensation, here are some additional ways that companies can recognize their long-term employees’ commitment to the company. Improve internal DEI measures Quantum Workplace found that while 61% of employees believe DEI strategies are beneficial and essential to the workplace, almost a third of employers (29%) think there is still a long way to go to me

Here's What Fannie Mae Forecast Sees Ahead for Economy, Rates

  WASHINGTON—Tightening monetary policy and elevated inflation remain the primary causes of a stagnating economy despite strong job growth, according to the August 2022 commentary from Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group . The ESR Group’s latest forecast of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth for full-year 2022 and 2023 remained essentially flat compared to last month at 0.0% and negative 0.4%, respectively. The continued expectation that real GDP growth will be negative beginning in 2023 is due to the combined effects of tighter monetary policy weighing on business and residential investment and still-elevated inflation weighing on consumer spending. The ESR Group said it does expect inflation to slow gradually, wit

Steve Rick, chief economist for CUNA Mutual Group. Many credit union members are taking on debt before interest rates rise.

Banks were already under interest rate pressure on personal loans from firms including SoFi and Marcus, and new data reveals that credit unions are also taking a larger chunk of that lending pie. Credit union loan balances rose 2.3% in May and unsecured personal loans led the way with 3% monthly growth, according to a report that CUNA Mutual Group, an insurance and financial services company that monitors the credit union industry, published this month .  “Many credit union members are taking on debt before interest rates rise further [to combat inflation] and to consolidate other loans. We expect this trend to continue for the next six months before slowing in 2023, when interest rates will be reaching their peak,” said Steve Rick, chief economist for CUNA Mutual Group. Unsecured lending grew 13% in the first six months of 2022, compared to 0% annual growth in the first six months of 2021, Rick said. One of the credit unions seeing more applications for unsecured l

Akron Fire Police Credit Union - Linda Williams Retirement, National Council of Firefighter Credit Unions (NCOFCU) Award Presentation and Notification of CEO Replacement

  Linda Williams; CEO of the 35 million Akron, Ohio-based Akron Fire Police Credit Union, was presented the National Council of Firefighter Credit Unions (NCOFCU) Lifetime Achievement Award at her retirement after 20 years of membership as a founding member of NCOFCU. Linda has been in the financial services industry for over 45 years, and 32 years within the credit union industry, where she has served as the CEO of Akron Fire Police Credit Union for 23 years. Linda is a graduate of CUNA Management School, has a master’s degree in Clinical Counseling, and holds a license as a Clinical Counselor. She has served eight years on the Ohio Credit Union Council, was on the Education Committee of NASCUS, and has served on various other credit union boards and league committees over the years. She is married with three grown children, five grandchildren, two dogs, three birds, and a turtle, which she hopes to spend more time with, in her retirement. The credit union has chosen Douglas W

Homebuilding Hits Its Lowest Point in 18 Months

 WASHINGTON—Homebuilding in the United States fell to its lowest level in nearly 18 months in July as higher mortgage rates and prices for construction materials weighed down growth. Some analysts are now suggesting the housing market could contract further during Q3. Despite the slowdown, strength in the broader economy and ongoing inflation are likely to mean the Federal Reserve will continue to raise rates when it next meets in September. “Reading the tea leaves on the economy hasn’t been this difficult in years,” Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS in New York, told Reuters. “Industrial production has turned down in every economic recession in history, so the record high this month is not consistent with a dow

CUSO Investments Keep Climbing

  Source: Callahan & Associates   Since the National Credit Union Administration began tracking the amount of money invested in credit union service organizations (CUSOs) in 2010, credit unions have allocated a significant amount of funds toward these organizations. CUSOs have access to capital now more than ever, and credit unions are interested in investing.  Credit union investments in and loans to CUSOs have risen by 7.8% since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, with investments comprising 80.9% of the total funds as of March 2022. Per NCUA regulation 12 CFR § 712.2, federally chartered credit unions can only invest in or lend to CUSOs 1% of the amount in paid-in share accounts and deposits based on their last year-end financial report. This rule makes it difficult for credit unions with low assets to allocate any significant funds to CUSOs, even if those investments could be valuable. Of the 1,958 credit unions w

June spending trends: ways to support member financial wellness needs.

By the Co-op SmartGrowthTM Team Despite a strong jobs report for June, most other economic indicators are pointing directly toward an economic slowdown. Co-op’s June credit union card portfolio data showed flattening month-over-month results across most categories in both credit and debit, with a continued shift away from debit spending as consumers seek to hold on to the cash they have in their deposit accounts in anticipation of the “rainy day” that’s almost here. June showed unexpectedly strong job gains of 372,000, keeping unemployment at a low 3.6%, identical to May’s level. Wages also climbed by 5.1% on an annualized basis. However, other economic indicators are not as encouraging. Retail sales slowed by 0.3% in May, and consumer sentiment fell to its lowest level in 70 years. In perhaps the biggest news, inflation jumped up to a 9.1% annual rate in June, hitting a new 40-year high. The bond market is now in a yield curve inversion, a sign that bond investors are predicting

The Big Question in Auto Loans: Why Aren’t Repossessions Increasing?

NEW YORK–A new report suggests more and more car buyers are having difficulty keeping up with auto loan payments—but raises the question over why repossessions aren’t rising. According to a report from Automotive News, 1.63% of auto loans haven’t received a payment in at least 60 days, which is 0.4% higher than it was the same time in 2021, and the highest in the past four years. Despite the increase, car loan default rates remain below pre-pandemic levels. Satyan Merchant, the senior vice president of TransUnion told Automotive News the increase can be attributed to changes in origination — or where borrowers stand in credit and spending. Borrowers who took out auto loans in the second and third quarters of 2020 are keeping up with them better than pre-pandemic borrowers, according to TransUnion. But auto loans in the second and third quarters of 2021 are starting to show similar delinquency rates as debt from before COVID-19, Automotive N

With Debate Over What July’s Inflation Data Mean, One Fed Pres Sees Rate Increase in September

WASHINGTON–At least one Federal Reserve Bank president said he believes the Fed will again need to raise rates when it meets in September, despite new data showing the rate of inflation has slowed. Neel Kashkari Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said he anticipates the Federal Reserve will push up rates by another 1.5 percentage points this year and to around 4.4% next year. “This is just the first hint that maybe inflation is starting to move in the right direction, but it doesn’t change my path,” said Kashkari during a panel discussion hosted by the Aspen Economic Strategy Group in Colorado. The Wall Street Journal noted some Fed

The ‘Vexing’ Challenge in Front of the Fed

WASHINGTON–Wages, prices and consumer spending all increased over the year ending in June, according to new government data, creating a challenge for economists and the Fed as they seek to interpret what all the numbers mean and how to best move forward. “The latest government data…showed evidence that the economy remains resilient amid fear of a recession, but also that inflation is likely to remain a vexing problem for the Federal Reserve,” noted the New York Times in its analysis. As CUToday.info reported, the new data show consumer prices were up 6.8% through June, according to Personal Consumption Expenditures  measure. That was the fastest pace since 1982, the government said. Yet as quickly as prices have increased, consumer spending rose e

Wages Grew Faster During the Pandemic for Low-End Earners in Low-Income Cities

Wages traditionally have grown fastest among high earners in large metropolitan areas. This was not, however, the trend from 2019 to 2021. “Focusing on salaried workers for simplicity, we found that low-end earnings increased more than others during the pandemic and, in sharp contrast to before the pandemic, they increased the most in low-income cities,” according to a new report from the ADP Research Institute. “We also found evidence suggesting that the pandemic-driven migration out of the nation’s most expensive cities contributed to hollowing the middle of their income distributions.” Nationally, the 12-month average of median monthly earnings was 6.8% higher in 2021 than in 2019. By the same measure, high-end earnings – those paid to workers in the 95th percentile –had jumped 8%. But low-end pay – the 5th percentile – increased even more over the same period, by 10.4%. “People tend to see the biggest pay raises when they switch jobs, and positions paying at the low

ATM Pooling: Solving the ATM Puzzle for Credit Unions

At its inception over 50 years ago, the ATM fired the starting gun for the self-service banking culture and quickly gained steam as a crucial touchpoint that freed account holders from the shackles of business hours and banking at a single branch. Today, a myriad of factors including trends accelerated by a global pandemic, social/political pressures, and rapidly advancing ATM technology are again shifting self-service expectations and changing the framework of the traditional ATM network. For credit unions, the recent changes surrounding the ATM has created a quandary in regard to their ATM network strategy. On one hand, cash usage decline and scares of a “cashless society” have put a microscope on escalating ATM costs, usage, and regulatory compliance for credit unions, and understandably so. But, simultaneously, access to cash remains relevant, accounting for roughly 20% of all transactions in the U.S., and the pressure for credit unions to serve even the smallest of communities rem

CUNA and NAFCU economists say reports early next month on jobs and inflation will influence the size of the Fed’s next rate hike.

Lower prices for gasoline and other energy helped slow inflation in July, but a CUNA economist said Wednesday that the Fed will want to see another set of reports on jobs and prices before deciding how much to raise rates at its next meeting. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday that its seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index showed no change from June to July and was up 8.5% from a year earlier. In June it was up a record 9.1% from a year earlier and up a seasonally adjusted 1.3% from May. For credit union members, prices were up on the items that require their greatest borrowing: homes and cars, with the notable exception of used cars. NAFCU Chief Economist Curt Long said July had the slowest month-over-month growth in prices since April 2020. Excluding food and energy, he said core inflation slowed considerably from June’s 0.7% growth to 0.3% in July. Curt Long “The CPI report was excellent and comes as welcome relief from the under-fire Fed

The IRS 5 Year Plan

WASHINGTON—The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) has released its five-year strategic plan for 2022 – 2026, laying out four major goals. Those goals include: Service. “Provide quality and accessible services to enhance the taxpayer experience.” Enforcement. “Enforce the tax law fairly and efficiently to increase voluntary compliance and narrow the tax gap.” People. “Foster an inclusive, diverse and well-equipped workforce and strengthen relationships with external partners.” Transformation. “Transform IRS operations to become more resilient, agile and responsive to improve the taxpayer experience and narrow the tax gap.” ‘Important Progress’ “We also continued to make important progress in our compliance programs, with a particular focus

Inflation Slows as Economy Cools, Offering a Reprieve, But for how Long?

The Consumer Price Index climbed 8.5 percent in July, a bigger slowdown than expected, but inflation may remain uncomfortably high for some time. Inflation cooled in July as gas prices and airfares fell, a welcome reprieve for consumers and economic policymakers but not yet a conclusive sign that price increases are turning a corner. The Consumer Price Index climbed 8.5 percent in the year through July, compared with 9.1 percent the prior month, a bigger slowdown than economists had projected. After stripping out food and fuel costs to get a sense of underlying price pressures, prices climbed by 5.9 percent through July, matching the previous reading. On a monthly basis, the price index did not move at all in July. That’s because fuel prices, airfares, and used cars declined in price, offsetting increases in rent and food costs. Core inflation was also slower than economists had expected on a monthly basis, climbing by 0.3 percent. In June, that figure was 0.7 percent. T

Recession! What Recession? Credit Union Lending Records Being Smashed So Far in 2022

MADISON, Wis.–Credit unions are smashing records when it comes to lending so far in 2022. In the 31 years CUNA has collected monthly data on credit union performance, Deputy Chief Advocacy Officer for Policy Analysis and Chief Economist Mike Schenk said the numbers go way beyond anything that had been forecast for this year at the end of 2021. “The results of the data really reflect the continuation of trends we have reported. The trends are really important and in a lot of respects surprising given the volatility we see in the economy overall and the concern people have over a recession,” Schenk said. But there’s nothing resembling a recession among credit union members when it comes to borrowing. CUNA’s data show lending was up 2.4% in June,