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Showing posts from January, 2023

Something Some CUs Should Stop. Another Some Should Start By Frank J. Diekmann

  By Frank J. Diekmann Here’s something some credit unions need to  stop  doing. Now. And here is something else others need to  start  doing. Now. As you have likely been reading, CUToday.info has been steadily and consistently reporting on those credit unions that have paid out year-end bonuses/patronage dividends/loan interest rebates for the year-end 2022 season. Those payouts/refunds tracked by this publication now exceed $173 million (we’ll publish a final tally this week). But as much as those are to be celebrated, some CUs seem to find reason to take unnecessary cheap shots at, basically, the credit union community. One CU, for example, announced its payout in a press release to the media that said, “(Name of CU) is on

Most Americans Anticipating a Fed Rate Increase; Analysis Shows What Increase Will Cost People

WASHINGTON–With the Federal Reserve almost certain to again hike rates when it meets next in early February, a new consumer poll finds most Americans expect inflation will continue to get worse. The same analysis also offers some insights into just how another rate increase will hit consumers payments on credit cards, mortgages, auto loans and other financial products. The survey, conducted by WalletHub, found: Two-in-three Americans think inflation is going to be worse in 2023 than in 2022 Nearly nine in 10 people say inflation will impact their spending in 2023 70% of Americans say their monthly grocery expenses have been affected by inflation the most, followed by gas (21%) and housing (9%) 87% of Americans are concerned about inflation

New GDP Data is ‘Positive,’ Clouds Clearing, Says NAFCU Economist

WASHINGTON–Although discussion and forecasts continue to focus on a recession in the U.S. economy, economic growth remained solid at the end of 2022, according to new federal data. Curt Long The Commerce Department said U.S. gross domestic product, adjusted for inflation, increased at an annual rate of 2.9% in the fourth quarter of 2022, down slightly from a 3.2% growth rate in the Q3. Consumer spending grew at a 2.1% rate, according to the Commerce Department data, which will be revised at a later date. “The big picture view of economic growth in the fourth quarter is a positive one,” said NAFCU Chief Economist and VP-Research Curt Long. “Much of that grow

NCUA Board Extends Loan Interest Rate Ceiling; Approves Annual Performance Plan

 Board Extends Loan Interest Rate Ceiling; Approves Annual Performance Plan ALEXANDRIA, Va. (Jan. 26, 2023) – The National Credit Union Administration Board held its first open meeting of 2023 and approved two items: An extension of the 18-percent federal credit union loan interest rate ceiling through Sept. 10, 2024; and The agency’s 2023 Annual Performance Plan . Board Extends Current 18-Percent Interest Rate Ceiling Consistent with the requirements of the Federal Credit Union Act, the NCUA Board unanimously approved maintaining the current 18-percent interest rate ceiling for loans made by federal credit unions for a new eighteen-month period from March 11, 2023, through September 10, 2024. “Adjusting the maximum

NCUA’s Letter to FCUs Outlines Decreased Operating Fee for 2023

ALEXANDRIA, Va.–NCUA has sent a Letter to Federal Credit Unions (23-FCU-01) noting federal credit union operating fees will decrease by an average of approximately 1.8% in 2023. The agency noted most of the reduction in the 2023 operating fee results from the approval by its board at its December 2022 meeting to apply a $15 million credit to amounts that would otherwise be owed to support the approved 2023 operating and capital budgets, as CUToday.info reported earlier. The $15 million credit comes from previously collected operating fees that remained unspent at the end of 2022. The remaining reduction to the 2023 operating fee results from the 8.5% asset growth in federal credit unions exceeding the growth of the NCUA’s combined operating and

Fed Governors Signal Smaller Rate Increases Coming

WASHINGTON–There is a growing chorus among Federal Reserve governors that the central bank will be slowing it pace of rate increases when the Federal Open Markets Committee meets next on Feb. 1. Christopher Waller Among those who have signaled the days of 50 - and 75-basis point increases are over is Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, who said he believes it’s time to slow the pace of increases—but not eliminate them. If the forecast proves true, it will mark the end of the rapid increases that took place during 2022 as the Fed sought to tamp down high inflation. Central bankers are now “entering a new phase that is focused more on how high-inter

Who's Wearing Swim Trunks, and Who Isn't?

01/21/2023 CUToday By Chip Filson  “Everyone looks like a business genius when interest rates are at historic lows and money is incredibly cheap. But when the tide goes out, you see who isn’t wearing any swimming trunks.” – Warren Buffett, among others Last week, all major banks reported their 4th quarter earnings.   Credit union 5300 call reports for the same period will not be available for 60 days or more from NCUA, unless individual firms post their financials independently. There are three observations from these commercial investment and consumer banking leaders so far. Fourth quarter earnings compared with the same period of 2021 are at best mixed.  JP Mor

Brace For ‘Record High’ Card Delinquencies, TransUnion Warns; But ‘Room for Optimism’ on Home Equity Loans

CHICAGO—Credit card issuers should brace for record-high delinquencies in 2023, a new report is warning. TransUnion’s credit forecast is projecting credit cards and personal loan delinquencies later this year will hit levels not seen since 2010. TransUnion said it expects credit card delinquencies to rise to 2.6% at the end of 2023, up from 2.1% at the close of 2022. Unsecured personal loan delinquency rates will increase to 4.3% from 4.1% in the same timeframe.  ‘Aggressive Loan Growth’ “Despite the forecasted growth in late credit card and personal loan payment rates, serious auto loan delinquency rates are expected to decline modestly to 1.90% in 2023 from 1.95% in 2022,” Fox Business stated in its analysis. The uptick in delinquencies follo

Existing home sales fell for the 11th consecutive month in December, hitting the slowest pace since November 2010

Sales of previously owned homes dropped 1.5% in December from the previous month, according to the National Association of Realtors. Sales ended the year at a seasonally adjusted, annualized pace of 4.02 million units, which was 34% lower than December 2021. It is the slowest pace since November 2010, when the nation was struggling through a housing crisis brought on by faulty subprime mortgages. Total sales for the year were down 17.8% from 2021. Home sales have now fallen for 11 straight months, due to much higher mortgage rates, which began rising last spring and had more than doubled by fall. Sky-high prices, driven by high demand during the first years of the pandemic, weakened affordability even further and caused supply to fall sharply. “December was another difficult month for buyers, who continue to face limited inventory and high mortgage rates,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the Realtors. “However, expect sales to pick up again soon since mortgage rate

Why Inflation Has Been Falling…

             Why Inflation Has Been Falling… January 13, 2023 1:32pm by Barry Ritholtz It may surprise you to learn that during this cycle of falling inflation, there seems to be little correlation with rising Fed Rates. This is very counter-intuitive but it makes sense when you consider what an aberrational and unusual cycle this has been. Despite zero rates for a decade plus, inflation was quite benign. It was only the combination of the global pandemic and lockdown, a massive fiscal stimulus, and a surge in demand for goods that launched the 2020-22 inflation spike. It is fair to ask: If low rates were not the driver of inflation, should we expect that higher rates will rein it in ? It’s natural to see a correlation between when the Fed began raising rates in March 2022, and inflation peaking soon after. But the relationship does not hold up well once we begin looking at the spec

NCUA Board to consider interest rate ceiling at Jan. 26 meeting

The NCUA Board will discuss extending the Federal Credit Union loan interest rate ceiling at its Jan. 26 meeting. The Federal Credit Union Act provides a default interest rate limit for federal credit union loans of 15%, it also permits the NCUA Board to increase the rate cap if certain conditions are met. The board last voted to maintain the ceiling at 18% (in place since the late 1980s) in June 2021, meaning it must vote to approve a new ceiling by March 31, or it reverts back to 15%. CUNA wrote to the NCUA Board this week urging it to act quickly to: Consider raising the cap beyond 18%. Adopt a floating interest rate cap instead of its traditional fixed interest rate cap. The NCUA Board will also review the agency’s 2023 Annual Performance Plan at the Jan. 26 meeting . It will begin at 10 a.m. ET and streamed live at NCUA.gov.

NCUA Outlines Its Supervisory Priorities for 2023

01/18/2023 CUToday ALEXANDRIA, Va.–In a new letter to credit unions, NCUA has outlined its 2023 supervisory priorities. The agency, noting its exam flexibility initiative will continue in 2023, said its primary focus this year will be: Interest Rate Risk NCUA noted the “sharp rise” in rates has “amplified market risk” because a credit union’s assets and liabilities do not reprice equally, potentially impacting net economic values and credit unions’ projected earnings, the agency reminded it has issued Letter to Credit Unions 22-CU-09, Updates to Interest Rate Risk Supervisory Framework, and Supervisory Letter 22-01, Updates to In

New Year, New Expectations: Lowest Average Annual Pay Workers Say They Are Willing to Accept is Now $73k, Fed Study Finds

 01/03/2023 CUToday NEW YORK– The lowest average annual pay that workers were willing to accept from a new employer is $73,667, according to a new survey by the New York Federal Reserve Bank. Known as a “reservation wage,” new figure reflects an increase of $794 over the bank’s July report and is the highest ever recorded since the survey’s inception in 2014. According to the New York Fed, the increase in salary expectations was highest among job seekers under the age of 45. But the report also found a difference between expectations and reality, with the average salary people were actually expected to receive coming in at $60,310, 18.1% lower than the higher exp

CU Economists See ‘Welcome Indication,’ Potential Fed ‘Pivot’ in Latest CPI Numbers; Eyes Now Turn to the Fed

01/12/2023 CUToday WASHINGTON–Inflation continued to slow on an annual basis in December, according to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers. The 6.5% increase in CPI during December is a “welcoming sign,” according to one credit union economist, with another saying he expects the Fed to be less aggressive in raising rates. Noah Yosef The latest increase is down from the 7.1% increase reported in November 2022 and is an indicator aggressive steps by the Fed to cool the economy by raising rates is having its desired effect. The annual inflation rate was the slowest s

Expiration of Emergency Exemption from Certain In-Person Meeting Requirements

To Federal Credit Unions Dear Boards of Directors and Chief Executive Officers: In March 2020, November 2020, and November 2021, the NCUA issued three letters to federal credit unions providing flexibility during the pandemic related to annual meetings. 1 In those letters, the NCUA recognized that the COVID-19 pandemic had created challenges for federal credit unions and their members. As a result, the NCUA provided federal credit unions with the flexibility to conduct their membership and board of director meetings completely virtually. This emergency exemption will expire on December 31, 2022. Specifically, in those actions the NCUA provided that a federal credit union could adopt at any time, by a two-thirds vote of its board of directors, and without additional NCUA approvals, a bylaw amendment to Article IV of the NCUA’s Federal Credit Union Bylaws. The letters to federal cred

Wanted - Branch Operations Manager Spokane Firefighters Credit Union

  Branch Operations Manager https://shanleysearch.com/available/open-positions/#tab-BranchOperationsManager-1   Spokane Firefighters Credit Union was founded by Spokane Firefighters in 1934, during the Great Depression. This was a time when trust in banks was at an all-time low and Americans with common interests banded together to form their own financial cooperatives. While many credit unions have expanded their membership fields to include just about anyone, we have remained closed to all except those that we have always served, which are firefighters and their families. The Credit Union is in excellent financial condition and provides quality in-person service while keeping up with the very latest in electronic banking technology. Our Mission Statement says it all: “Improve the quality of life for our members by providing personalized financial services.” The credit union has an exciting new opportunity for a member services / operations specialist to join their team as the Branch

Driving Growth in the Year of the Rabbit

01/07/2023 CUToday By John Vardallas According to the Chinese Calendar 2023 is the Zodiac Year of the Rabbit. The Rabbit personality is focused on peace, prosperity, longevity and access. People born in this year are calm, decisive, rarely panic and cautioned to think twice before acting to be successful in their plans. In terms of wealth, Rabbits will be careful about watching their money and entering monetary relationships with others. So do not expect a big windfall achievement in the year of the Rabbit. Bracing for trouble and being cautious and reasonable about money will help one go through the year smoothly.  Like the rabbit, credit union leaders must monitor the changing economic conditions and

NAFCU Economist: U.S. Might Dodge Recession

Curt Long said a strong jobs report shows resilience despite the Fed’s escalation in interest rates. By Jim DuPlessis | January 06, 2023 CUTimes Source: Shutterstock. NAFCU Chief Economist Curt Long said Friday the continued strength in the job market has increased the odds the nation will dodge a recession this year. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday there were 153.7 million seasonally adjusted jobs in December, an increase of 223,000, or 0.1%, from November and up 3% from a year earlier. The unemployment rate was 3.5% in December, down from 3.6% in November and 3.9% in December 2021. Long said December’s rate was the lowest in more than 50 years, while the labor force participation rate rose slightly. Seasonally adjusted average hourly earnings were $32.82 in December, up 0.3% from November and up 4.6% from a year ago, a slightly lower rate of increase from previous months. Curt Long “This is an unambiguously positiv