NAFCU economist Curt Long optimistic about 2018 growth

NAFCU Chief Economist and Vice President of Research Curt Long said Friday’s jobs report - with 148,000 jobs gained in December - was "modestly positive" and signals positive economic growth for 2018.

The unemployment rate remained at 4.1 percent in December as 64,000 workers joined the labor force. This matched the lowest unemployment level since December 2000.

"The December jobs report was modestly positive, as employment gains were below expectations but still strong enough to keep the unemployment rate steady," said Long. "Wage growth remains low but did tick up slightly to 2.5 percent. Overall, the job market performed well in 2017 and is a key reason why the economy is poised for its best year since the crisis in 2018."

Based on strong economic growth and strengthening in the labor market, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised the federal fund's target rate by a quarter-point to a range of 1.25 to 1.5 percent during its December meeting. The FOMC’s next two-day monetary policy meeting is set for Jan. 30-31.

In other report data, total private-sector payroll employment increased by 146,000 jobs during December. The goods-producing sector increased by 55,000 jobs, while the service sector increased by 91,000 jobs. Public sector employment rose by 2,000 from the prior month.

Average hourly earnings increased by 9 cents to $26.63 in December. Over the last 12 months, wages are up 2.5 percent. Since 2009, year-over-year wage growth has averaged just 2.2 percent.

                                                                                                                                                                     

Curt Long was named chief economist and vice president of research in July 2017 after having been director of research and chief economist since August 2014. In this role, he serves as the association's chief economic analyst, conducting economic and financial policy research and providing ongoing economic analysis for NAFCU's staff and its member credit unions. Long also helps produce a number of NAFCU's publications – including the quarterly CU Performance Benchmark Report and the monthly Economic & CU Monitor – and its numerous economic forecasts and surveys. In addition, he presents on economic topics at NAFCU events and conferences. 

Long holds a Master's degree in Economics from Texas A&M University and a Bachelor's degree in Accounting from Texas Christian University.

Prior to joining NAFCU, Long practiced his financial skills for a real estate development company in Irving, Texas.