Firefighter Credit Union Newsroom

WASHINGTON—There will not be a recession in the U.S. in the near future, according to a CUNA economist, who is citing two reasons for the forecast: the inverted yield curve this time is not a sign of a downturn, and the economy will continue to expand. Mike Schenk, deputy chief advocacy officer and chief economist at CUNA, said the uncertainty and volatility in the economy brought about by the trade war with China and debate around what the inverted yield curve might mean, as long-term Treasury yields drop below those of shorter-term T-bills. “When the yield curve inverts, the U.S. generally heads toward a recession. It is typically a very accurate predictor of a recession,” said Schenk. “But this time we don't think that's going to happen for variety of reasons.” Not Typical Inversion A key reason for CUNA’s stance, said Schenk, is that what has triggered the inverted yield curve this time is not what typically causes the rate imbalanc...

JACKSON HOLE, Wyo.–In comments at the conclusion of the Fed’s annual summer retreat here, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said objective is to maintain the economic expansion, but also made an indirect reference to President Trump’s tariffs by saying “trade policy uncertainty” was the new challenge. Less than an hour after delivering his comments, Trump tweeted the Fed has done “NOTHING” and then added, “My only question is, who is our biggest enemy, Jay Powell or Chairman Xi?” During his prepared statement, on several occasions Powell said the Fed “will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion,” adding that when it comes to the Fed’s dual mandate on full employment and price stability, the “economy is close to both goals.”   “Our challenge now is to do what monetary policy can do to sustain the expansion so that the benefits of the strong jobs market extend to more of those still left behind, and so that inflation is centered...

ARLINGTON, Va.—Total retail sales increased 0.7% in July, and while consumer growth continues to "buoy" the economy, other threats could have a negative impact, according to NAFCU Chief Economist and Vice President of Research Curt Long. "Three segments that have struggled recently – clothing stores, sporting goods and hobby stores, and electronics and appliance stores – showed solid gains last month," said Long in a new NAFCU Macro Data Flash report. "Tariffs represent a threat to the future outlook for sales, although any negative impact may operate with a lag if skittish consumers move spending forward to get ahead of potential price impacts. "With yet another solid economic report in hand, the Fed faces a difficult decision. Markets are convinced that the trade war, slow growth abroad, and a range of geopolitical risks mean another rate cut is forthcoming," ...

CUToday NEW YORK–In what many had anticipated would be a (slowly) rising rate market, mortgage rates have dropped significantly, with the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage hitting its lowest point since November of 2016. According to Freddie Mac, last week ended with the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaging 3.6%, down 15 basis points from the previous week. Last week marked the third-largest weekly decline for the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage this year — so far in 2019, rates for the loan product have only posted a weekly increase on eight occasions, Freddie Mac reported. Meanwhile, the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage also declined 15 basis points to an average of 3.05%, according to Freddie Mac. The 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage averaged 3.36%, representing a decline of 10 basis points, the GSE added. Mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury note, the yield on which has fallen sharply over the past year due to tensions over trade and...

WASHINGTON–As many had expected, the Federal Open Market Committee has cut rates by 25 basis points to a target rate for the federal funds rate of 2% to 2.25%. “Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that the labor market remains strong and that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate,” the Fed said. “Job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Although growth of household spending has picked up from earlier in the year, growth of business fixed investment has been soft. On a 12-month basis, overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy are running below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed.” The Fed said it moved to cut rates to meet its statutory mandate of fostering maximum employment and price stability. “This...