NAFCU's Chief Economist Curt Long "Eyes Turn Again to the Fed"

ARLINGTON, Va.—Total retail sales increased 0.7% in July, and while consumer growth continues to "buoy" the economy, other threats could have a negative impact, according to NAFCU Chief Economist and Vice President of Research Curt Long.

"Three segments that have struggled recently – clothing stores, sporting goods and hobby stores, and electronics and appliance stores – showed solid gains last month," said Long in a new NAFCU Macro Data Flash report. "Tariffs represent a threat to the future outlook for sales, although any negative impact may operate with a lag if skittish consumers move spending forward to get ahead of potential price impacts.

"With yet another solid economic report in hand, the Fed faces a difficult decision. Markets are convinced that the trade war, slow growth abroad, and a range of geopolitical risks mean another rate cut is forthcoming," he added.

Results among the major retail segments were mostly positive in July. The biggest gains were among nonstore retailers (+2.8%), gas stations (+1.8%), department stores (+1.2%) and restaurants and bars (+1.1%). The largest declines during the month included sporting goods and hobby stores (-1.1%) and motor vehicle and parts dealers (-0.6%).

"FOMC officials have been conspicuous in their silence since July's meeting, but next week's annual gathering in Jackson Hole should provide some clarity," Long concluded.

See you in Clearwater Beach

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TruStage To Launch TSDA, Bringing Stablecoin Infrastructure To Community FIs

MADISON, Wis.— TruStage Tuesday today announced the planned launch of TruStage Stablecoin (TSDA), a fully reserved U.S. dollar stablecoin. At its core, TSDA is designed to broaden access to digital payment infrastructure for community-based financial institutions, TruStage explained. “A trusted partner of credit unions for more than 90 years, TruStage currently works with more than 93% of 4,300+ credit unions nationwide, which collectively hold more than $2 trillion in assets. TruStage Stablecoin will be among the very first stablecoins specific to community based financial institutions and is supported by decades of industry relationships, financial strength, and operational excellence,” TruStage said. “In my career working with credit unions, I’ve never witnessed the level of engagement surrounding any technology advancement similar to what I’m seeing with stablecoin solutions right now,” said Brian Kaas, president and managing director of TruStage Ventures, the venture capital arm o...

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Sunday Reading - Where Beatniks Come From

Where Beatniks Come From An introduction to the Beat Generation The Beat Generation was an American literary movement that rose to prominence in the 1950s. A loosely affiliated collection of poets, novelists, playwrights, publishers, and other artists reacted to what they considered an anti-intellectual and homogeneous social order following World War II. The writing of the Beat Generation used experimental forms, surreal imagery, and vernacular language, and emphasized the importance of " spontaneous prose " to mimic the improvisation of jazz. Although the Beats praised canonical poets like William Blake, Arthur Rimbaud, and Walt Whitman, much of their work sought to rebel against literary tradition. The Beats' radical politics and nonconformity influenced several subsequent countercultural ...

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As Expected, Fed Opts Not to Raise Rates--But Says It May in Future

WASHINGTON–As expected, the Federal Reserve has adjourned its meeting here without raising rates, but it also indicated it could again do so in the future. The decision means rates remain at a two-decade high. The adjournment without action marks the second consecutive meetings at which the Fed has not raised rates, it the longest period without an increase since it began to lift rates from near 0% in March 2022. In announcing it would maintain the Fed Funds rate at a range of 5.25% to 5.50%, the Fed said in a statement that recent indicators suggest economic activity expanded at a strong pace in the third quarter, job gains have moderated since earlier in the year but remain strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated. ...

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Sunday Reading - Year of the Fire Horse

Year of the Fire Horse Lunar New Year celebrations kick off tomorrow, ushering in the Year of the Fire Horse in the Chinese zodiac. The 15-day festivities, observed by billions worldwide, start with the new moon and end with the Lantern Festival. China anticipates a record 9.5 billion trips during the 40-day travel rush around the holiday, the world’s largest annual human migration. The horse is the seventh animal in the 12-year zodiac cycle and symbolizes energy, independence, and ambition. Those born in horse years are seen as dynamic, courageous, and charismatic. Many see the Year of the Fire Horse as a time to tak...

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James Hunter, Executive Director of Credit Union Development for New Orleans Firemen’s CU, knows too well how expensive it is to be poor.

NEW ORLEANS FIREMEN’S FCU 􀀁 METAIRIE, L A passion for empowerment James Hunter knows too well how expensive it is to be poor. It’s what he sees every day as mortgage director and executive director of credit union development for $182 million asset New Orleans Firemen’s Federal Credit Union, Metairie, La., and executive director of The Faith Fund, a nonprofit partnership that seeks to provide a financial hand-up to the undeserved. It’s what inspires him to come to work every day and drives his passion of empowering people and setting them on the path to financial security. “Too many people are too far away from the starting line,” Hunter says. “Payday loans are a big business in Louisiana. Exorbitant fees and interest from payday loans drain more than a quarter of a billion dollars a year. Baton Rouge supports one of the top three pay-day loan markets in the U.S.” The Faith Fund was formed to counteract that. It’s a unique cooperative relationship between like-minded busi...

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NCUA promises flexibility in examinations and the flexibility to prudently adjust or alter member loan terms

In an effort to help members through the coronavirus crisis, the NCUA will give credit unions the flexibility to prudently adjust or alter member loan terms and will not subject those decisions to “examiner criticism,” agency Chairman Rodney Hood said Monday. Hood, in a letter to credit unions , outlined the steps the agency is taking to address the health emergency. Those steps include requiring all agency staff to work offsite through March 30. All examination work will be conducted offsite as well, the agency said. “A credit union’s efforts to work with members in communities under stress may contribute to the strength and recovery of these communities,” Hood wrote in outlining steps that credit unions may take to help members. Those steps include: Waiving ATM fees and increasing ATM daily cash withdrawal limits. Waiving overdraft fees. Waiving early withdrawal penalties in time deposits. Easing restrictions on cashing out-of-state and non-members checks. Easing credit terms f...

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LA County firefighters help each other cope with toughest part of the job

This is an excellent program, and no matter what size your department is, you should be prepared. Scott Ross talks over issues with Firefighter Richard Conejo who was recently affected by the death of a fellow firefighter . They meet under the auspices of the LA County Fire Department's Peer Support Program. **** Read More ; LA County <b>firefighters</b> help each other cope with toughest part of the job :

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One Group of Competitors Has $3 Average OD Fee

By Ray Birch LAKE FOREST, Ill.—A new study suggests credit unions should be less concerned about what big banks are doing with overdrafts and instead focus their attention on fintechs. A new report from Moebs $ervices reveals fintechs continue to grab an even greater share of the checking market, and a big reason is a $3 average overdraft fee combined with targeted marketing. “Fintechs are raking in the checking market share by going after those consumers who seldom overdraw but do so enough to add to profitability,” explained Michael Moebs, economist and chair of Moebs $ervices. “Fintechs are targeting, with one checking account, people with higher FICO scores. This is not what CUs, banks and thrifts are doing. Plus, most of the fintechs will pay interest on their checking account. It is classical financial services pricing— using fees, rates and balances.” ...

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Is it a ‘skip’ or a ‘pause’? Federal Reserve won’t likely raise rates next week but maybe next month

WASHINGTON — Don’t call it a “pause.” When the Federal Reserve meets next week, it is widely expected to leave interest rates alone — after 10 straight meetings in which it has jacked up its key rate to fight inflation. But what might otherwise be seen as a “pause” will likely be characterized instead as a “skip.” The difference? A “pause” might suggest that the Fed may not raise its benchmark rate again. A “skip” implies that it probably will — just not now. The purpose of suspending its rate hikes is to give the Fed’s policymakers time to look around and assess how much higher borrowing rates are slowing inflation. Calling next week’s decision a “skip” is also a way for Chair Jerome Powell to forge a consensus among an increasingly fractious committee of Fed policymakers. One group of Fed officials would like to pause their hikes and decide, over time, whether to increase rates any further. But a second group worries that inflation is still too high and would prefer tha...

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CU Board Modernization Act Passes House

Backed by NAFCU and CUNA, the legislation would reduce the number of times CU boards must meet each year. By Michael Ogden | September 30, 2022 at 01:00 PM U.S. Capitol building, Washington, D.C. (Source: Shutterstock) The House of Representatives passed the Credit Union Board Modernization Act on Thursday, the fate of which goes to the Senate, where a similar version was introduced in May. The bill would alter the Federal Credit Union Act’s requirement that federally charted credit unions meet 12 times each year and reduce that number to a minimum of six times each year. For months, CUNA and NAFCU officials have backed the bill , along with representatives from the California and Ohio Credit Union Leagues. “This bill would provide a needed update to credit union board meeting requirements, freeing up time and resources that can be dedicated to meeting members’ needs,” CUNA President/CEO Jim Nussle said. “We thank Reps. Var...

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