ARLINGTON, Va.—Total retail sales increased 0.7% in July, and while
consumer growth continues to "buoy" the economy, other threats could
have a negative impact, according to NAFCU Chief Economist and Vice
President of Research Curt Long.
"Three segments that have struggled recently – clothing stores,
sporting goods and hobby stores, and electronics and appliance stores –
showed solid gains last month," said Long in a new NAFCU Macro Data
Flash report. "Tariffs represent a threat to the future outlook for
sales, although any negative impact may operate with a lag if skittish
consumers move spending forward to get ahead of potential price impacts.
"With yet another solid economic report in hand, the Fed faces a difficult decision. Markets are convinced that the trade war, slow growth abroad, and a range of geopolitical risks mean another rate cut is forthcoming," he added.
Results among the major retail segments were mostly positive in July. The biggest gains were among nonstore retailers (+2.8%), gas stations (+1.8%), department stores (+1.2%) and restaurants and bars (+1.1%). The largest declines during the month included sporting goods and hobby stores (-1.1%) and motor vehicle and parts dealers (-0.6%).
"FOMC officials have been conspicuous in their silence since July's meeting, but next week's annual gathering in Jackson Hole should provide some clarity," Long concluded.
"With yet another solid economic report in hand, the Fed faces a difficult decision. Markets are convinced that the trade war, slow growth abroad, and a range of geopolitical risks mean another rate cut is forthcoming," he added.
Results among the major retail segments were mostly positive in July. The biggest gains were among nonstore retailers (+2.8%), gas stations (+1.8%), department stores (+1.2%) and restaurants and bars (+1.1%). The largest declines during the month included sporting goods and hobby stores (-1.1%) and motor vehicle and parts dealers (-0.6%).
"FOMC officials have been conspicuous in their silence since July's meeting, but next week's annual gathering in Jackson Hole should provide some clarity," Long concluded.
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