Steven Rick, Chief Economist with CUNA Mutual, said the best-case scenario is U.S. economic output will be down by 20% in the second quarter, and that figure could be as high as 30%.

MADISON, Wis.–Capital and liquidity may never be more important to credit unions than they will be during what looks to be a very challenging second half of 2020 and all of 2021, according to one analyst, who said provision for loan losses is going to be a big topic of discussion, as will be negative ROA a year from now.

           Steven Rick

Steve Rick, chief economist with CUNA Mutual, who said during a webinar hosted by the CU Leadership Convention observed, “The biggest thing we’re working on as economists are revising down our forecasts every week,” made clear the effects of the coronavirus pandemic mean credit unions are well on their way into one of the most difficult operating environments they have faced in their century-long history.

The webinar was organized to help credit unions plan for the next several years and make adjustments to forecasts that might have been made during planning sessions in late 2019.

If there is any positive news, according to Rick, it’s that credit unions are doing so with some of the highest levels of capital they have ever held. And they are going to need it.

Rick said the best-case scenario is U.S. economic output will be down by 20% in the second quarter, and that figure could be as high as 30%.  He is forecasting the economy will grow by 5% in the third and fourth quarters, but the road back is going to be a long one.

The ‘Perfect Storm’

“It’s just not COVID-19, it’s a perfect storm,” said Rick, pointing to four factors affecting the economy:

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