WASHINGTON—The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision earlier this week to maintain the federal funds target rate at its current range of 0% to 0.25% is an acknowledgment the economic recovery has stalled in recent months due to increased COVID-19 cases, according to one economist.
"While there was a reference to the progress on vaccine distribution and its potential to alter the path of economy, there was no indication that a change in asset purchase volume is anywhere in view,” said NAFCU Chief Economist and Vice President of Research Curt Long.
As it has in its recent meetings, the FOMC again issued a statement that the Fed is "committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals."
During the meeting, the committee also unanimously reaffirmed its "Statement of Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy," originally adopted in August 2020 following a review of monetary policy strategy, tools, and communications practices.
Long said the new strategy framework seeks to better reflect economic changes and monetary policy approaches. Throughout the coronavirus pandemic, the Fed has made clear its intention to use its tools to their fullest potential until the economic recovery is well underway and Long previously said the statement "looks to avoid the mistakes of the past."
The FOMC is expected to next meet March 16-17. Its tentative meeting schedule for 2021 can be viewed here.
By Ray Birch MILWAUKEE—Auto lending is emerging as one of the biggest areas of risk for credit unions, even as the broader U.S. economy continues to perform better than many expected, according to Bill Handel, chief economist at Raddon, a Fiserv company. Delinquency trends in auto portfolios are now approaching levels last seen during the Great Financial Crisis, Handel said, driven by a combination of high vehicle prices, elevated interest rates and increasing financial pressure on lower-income consumers. “There’s probably still a lot of risk in the auto portfolios,” Handel said. “Our numbers in terms of delinquency behavior in the United States are now rivaling what they were during the Great Financial Crisis.” Economy Holding Up Better Than Expected Despite those pockets of risk, Handel said the broader economy remains surprisingly resilient. “If you look at the U.S. economy, it’s actually performing quite well—probably better than most people would have anticipated,” he said. ...
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