WASHINGTON–What many are calling the newest jobs report disappointing, it has some positives, according to economists with both CUNA and NAFCU.
The federal government said that during September nonfarm payrolls rose by just 194,000 in the month, after many analysts had been saying they expected as many as 500,000 new jobs to be reported. According to the fed data, the topline number was hurt by a 123,000 decline in government payrolls, while private payrolls increased by 317,000.
Dawit Kebede, CUNA
Despite the weak jobs total, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported wages were up sharply. The monthly gain of 0.6% pushed the year-over-year rise to 4.6% as companies use wage increases to combat the persistent labor shortage.
‘Still Reluctant to Travel’
“Following the Delta surge in August, various indicators started showing signs of improved economic activity,” noted CUNA Senior Economist Dawit Kebede. “The September jobs report is weaker than expected, but the good news is that while hiring has remained stagnant, the unemployment rate declined to 4.8%.
“Small employment gains in the leisure and hospitality industry show, despite the declining trend of the Delta virus, people are still reluctant to resume in-person activities.”
Kabede added that for “several members of the Federal Reserve, a stronger September jobs report would have met the employment test to start tapering asset purchases. However, declining unemployment rates could suffice for the Federal Reserve to start slowing down the purchase of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities as early as next month.”
Curt Long, NAFCU
Some Positive Signs
NAFCU Chief Economist and Vice President of Research Curt Long said there are some positives to be found in the newest numbers.
“Payroll gains disappointed in September, failing to hit the 200,000 mark for the first time in the calendar year,” said Long. “However, there were positive signs buried below the headline number. Much of the weakness was concentrated in local education, which is likely due to faulty seasonal adjustments. Meanwhile, restaurant and retail employment picked up at a time when COVID cases were cresting, which bodes well for the October report. As compared to August, job gains in September were skewed toward full-time work, and average hours worked per employee picked up. Wage growth accelerated to 4.6% versus the prior year, which should help blunt the impact of strong inflation.”
The federal government said that during September nonfarm payrolls rose by just 194,000 in the month, after many analysts had been saying they expected as many as 500,000 new jobs to be reported. According to the fed data, the topline number was hurt by a 123,000 decline in government payrolls, while private payrolls increased by 317,000.
Dawit Kebede, CUNA
Despite the weak jobs total, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported wages were up sharply. The monthly gain of 0.6% pushed the year-over-year rise to 4.6% as companies use wage increases to combat the persistent labor shortage.
‘Still Reluctant to Travel’
“Following the Delta surge in August, various indicators started showing signs of improved economic activity,” noted CUNA Senior Economist Dawit Kebede. “The September jobs report is weaker than expected, but the good news is that while hiring has remained stagnant, the unemployment rate declined to 4.8%.
“Small employment gains in the leisure and hospitality industry show, despite the declining trend of the Delta virus, people are still reluctant to resume in-person activities.”
Kabede added that for “several members of the Federal Reserve, a stronger September jobs report would have met the employment test to start tapering asset purchases. However, declining unemployment rates could suffice for the Federal Reserve to start slowing down the purchase of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities as early as next month.”
Curt Long, NAFCU
Some Positive Signs
NAFCU Chief Economist and Vice President of Research Curt Long said there are some positives to be found in the newest numbers.
“Payroll gains disappointed in September, failing to hit the 200,000 mark for the first time in the calendar year,” said Long. “However, there were positive signs buried below the headline number. Much of the weakness was concentrated in local education, which is likely due to faulty seasonal adjustments. Meanwhile, restaurant and retail employment picked up at a time when COVID cases were cresting, which bodes well for the October report. As compared to August, job gains in September were skewed toward full-time work, and average hours worked per employee picked up. Wage growth accelerated to 4.6% versus the prior year, which should help blunt the impact of strong inflation.”
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