Skip to main content

Report on inflation to force the Fed to move more quickly than it would like on raising rates.

ARLINGTON, Va.—Add NAFCU’s chief economist to those who expect last week’s report on inflation to force the Fed to move more quickly than it would like on raising rates.


Curt Long

The most recent numbers show inflation in the U.S. hit its highest point in more than 30 years, according to data released by the Labor Department today.

On a seasonally-adjusted basis, overall consumer prices rose 0.9% in October, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics reporting the overall consumer price index (CPI) grew 6.2% over the 12-month period.

NAFCU Chief Economist and Vice President of Research Curt Long noted that most of the inflation was largely driven by energy prices.

"After three months of more moderate price growth, the October figure matches June for the highest inflation print of the year," said Long.

Energy prices rose 4.8% during the month, following a 1.3% increase in September. From a year ago, energy prices were up 30%. Additionally, food prices climbed 0.9% in October and are up 5.3% compared to this time last year.

Fed Action

"Markets reacted to the news immediately with a bounce in short-term yields as markets anticipate Fed action in the first half of 2022,” Long added.

"The Fed will want to wait longer than that, but inflation must settle at a more comfortable level quickly,” concluded Long. “If price growth continues at its current pace, the calls for action will be too loud to ignore.”

Core prices (excluding food and energy costs) rose 0.6% compared to September. Year-over-year core CPI growth was 4.6%.

Comments

Post a Comment

Please no profanity or political comments.

Popular posts from this blog

Hauptman Tells Congress CU Health is Strong; Responds to Questions from Committee

WASHINGTON — National Credit Union Administration Chairman Kyle Hauptman told members of the House Financial Services Committee on Thursday that the nation’s credit union system remains financially strong, while warning that rising delinquencies and consumer financial stress continue to warrant close monitoring. Hauptman also responded to a handful of questions from members of Congress, as well. Hauptman appeared as part of the regular hearings on Oversight of Prudential Regulators. Also appearing as witnesses were Michelle Bowman, vice chair for supervision with the Federal Reserve; Travis Hill, FDIC chairman, and Jonathan Gould, the acting Comptroller of the Currency. Kyle Hauptman In his prepared statement, Hauptman said federally insured credit unions remain well-capitalized and continue to meet members’ borrowing needs despite economic headwinds. He said the NCUA is focused on maintaining safety and soundness, protecting the National Credit Union Share Insurance Fund and creating...
Post a Comment
Read Complete Article HERE>»

Reuters: Trump Regulators Launch Biggest Bank Oversight Overhaul Since 2008

Is NCUA next? WASHINGTON—Federal banking regulators under President Trump are undertaking what Reuters described as the most significant overhaul of bank supervision since the 2008 financial crisis, shifting examiner focus away from process and compliance issues and toward what agencies consider “material” financial risks. According to Reuters, the Federal Reserve, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. have directed examiners to concentrate on risks that pose direct threats to a bank’s safety and soundness, rather than on paperwork deficiencies, governance concerns or procedural issues that do not immediately affect financial stability. Reuters reported that regulators have also moved away from evaluating banks based on “reputational risk,” a supervisory concept long criticized by banks as overly subjective. The change follows complaints from President Trump and others that financial institutions have used reputational-risk considerations...
Post a Comment
Read Complete Article HERE>»

Sunday Reading - Changing the Map

  Changing the Map     Redistricting, explained Congressional redistricting is the process by which states redraw electoral district boundaries   that determine representation in the US House of Representatives. The Constitution, federal law, and court rulings require districts to have roughly equal populations, avoid discrimination against racial or language minorities, and, in most states, be geographically contiguous. For most of American history, redistricting has followed a predictable cycle, occurring every 10 years after the census.   Gerrymandering is the deliberate manipulation of district boundaries to advantage one political party. Common tactics  by both major American political parties include packing opposition voters i...
Post a Comment
Read Complete Article HERE>»

The Rebounding Relevance of Adjustable-Rate Mortgages = By Kevin Hearden & Steve Rick

  This traditional mortgage lending product could help CUs attract high-contributing members and boost much-needed interest income. By Kevin Hearden & Steve Rick | August 19, 2022 at 03:33 PM Today, nearly three-quarters (72%) of credit unions’ total revenues come from interest income. So, when interest earnings as a percent of assets dropped almost 30% in April of this year, more than one alarm bell sounded within the movement. Credit union leaders across the country are rightly concerned about the sustainability of mortgage lending within what is already a highly competitive environment. In fact, lending executives participating in a May 2022 MGIC survey ranked the expected difficulty of 2022 at an eight out of 10. And while shiny startup strategies for boosting interest income make the headlines, it may be the resurgence of a traditional mortgage lending product that makes the difference. Borrowers Give ARMs a Fresh Look We’re talking, of c...
Post a Comment
Read Complete Article HERE>»

Cheer Up and Change: "Wait and see is not a plan."

I posted this a year ago and thought I would bring it back to see if any of his predictions came true. Take a look and tell us what you think. Grant Sheehan CEO Cheer Up and Change: The Demographic Mandate At a conference I recently attended Monday morning started off with a great session by demographer and futurist Ken Gronbach, who laid out his predictions on where we’re going and what we can expect as demographics change. I was pleasantly surprised that the future isn’t sounding as bleak as the news might have you believe. Gronbach offered lots of predictions for where our society and our world is headed. His predictions were given with a purpose: To help associations build their vision and plan for the future. As Gronbach stressed,  "Wait and see is not a plan." I’ve decided to arrange this recap into a list of my takeaways rather than a narrative recap. I hope you get as much out of this information as I did! Things to Expect: Big Changes in Retail : Gronbach ...
Post a Comment
Read Complete Article HERE>»

Ransomware: 'It's A Growing Issue'

MADISON, Wis.—Ransomware attacks, already a quiet concern that has been growing among credit unions, are expected to dramatically increase this year—with one analyst saying there is “no silver bullet” to prevent the threat. Ransomware is a type of malicious software designed to block access to a computer system or PC until a sum of money is paid. In the case of a financial institution, crooks first use the malware to encrypt the contents of the FI’s data and then extract a ransom in exchange for decrypting the information and allowing the victim to regain access. It’s an issue, according to one regulator source who asked for anonymity that has been growing within credit unions, many of which have paid ransoms to regain access to their data and have chosen not to speaking publicly about the crime. “This has become a huge problem,” said Ken Otsuka, senior consultant in CUNA Mutual Group’s risk management department, adding that CUNA Mutual Group’s cyber liability coverage data d...
Post a Comment
Read Complete Article HERE>»

Fire Family Foundation Establishes Erksine Fire: Rebuilding Lives and Community Fund

Fund Will Assist Fire Victims and Firefighters in Kern County July    8, Los Angeles, CA:   Responding to the emergency of deadly wildfires that are currently blazing through communities in Kern County, Fire Family Foundation, the charitable hand of Firefighters First Credit Union, has created the Erskine Fire: Rebuilding Lives and Community Fund. California’s largest wildfire so far this year, the Erskine fire erupted Thursday afternoon and continues to burn; two people have died, thousands have left their homes, 200 homes were destroyed with many others severely damaged. Four firefighters who were working on the blaze learned the sad news that their own homes were completely destroyed by the fire. The Erskine Fire Fund will dedicate 100% of the funds raised to be distributed to firefighters and fire victims; funds will be used for short-term assistance to pay expenses for essential and immediate needs from food to mortgages/rent "Our firefighters are battli...
Post a Comment
Read Complete Article HERE>»

Proposed FOM changes would streamline ability to reach underserved

February 16, 2023 The NCUA Board proposed chartering and field-of-membership changes and issued its final cyber incident reporting rule at its Thursday meeting. The board also heard a quarterly update on the share insurance fund, which noted an increase in the fund's equity ratio to 1.30%." The proposal would amend the chartering and FOM rules through nine changes to enhance consumer access to financial services, especially in low- and moderate-income communities while reducing duplicative or unnecessary paperwork and administrative requirements. “Getting credit union services to more communities across the country is important to CUNA, state leagues and the credit unions we serve, and making that easier to achieve has a big impact on access,” said CUNA Deputy Chief Advocacy Officer Jason Stverak. “While we need to review the proposal in detail, we thank the NCUA board for working to streamline the ability of credit un...
Post a Comment
Read Complete Article HERE>»

AI Rapidly Reshaping How Consumers Discover, Compare & Choose Banking Products (But Trust Remains an Issue)

  Frank Diekmann May 26, 2026 SYDNEY — Artificial intelligence is rapidly reshaping how consumers discover, compare and select banking products, forcing financial institutions to rethink their digital marketing and customer acquisition strategies, according to a new report from Bain & Company .  The report, titled “How AI Rewrites the Rules of Brand Discoverability in Banking,” found that AI assistants such as ChatGPT, Claude and Google Gemini are increasingly acting as the first point of contact between consumers and banks, particularly in Australia, where consumers are using the technology to evaluate products, interpret fees and even prepare applications for loans and credit cards.  According to Bain & Company, the traditional banking sales funnel — once driven by branches, brokers, advertising and search engine rankings — is rapidly shifting toward AI-generated recommendations and responses. ‘Increasingly Influencing Choice’ “AI assistants increasingly influen...
Post a Comment
Read Complete Article HERE>»

Letter to Credit Unions Says NCUA Exam Modernization Now Underway

ALEXANDRIA, Va.—NCUA has sent a Letter to Credit Unions ( 21-CU-08 ) detailing the agency's transition to modernized systems. The agency said it will begin this transition in August. NCUA’s efforts will include the implementation of emerging and secure technology that supports the NCUA’s examination, data collection, field of membership, and reporting efforts. “These new applications will streamline processes and procedures and provide significant benefits to credit union users,” NCUA said. Key areas affected: NCUA Connect Admin Portal Consumer Access Process and Reporting Information System (CAPRIS) 1 Modern Examination & Risk Identification Tool (MERIT) Data Exchange Application (DEXA) Training Available To prepare credit unions for the transition to these new systems, NCUA said it will provide credit union user training through various avenues, including: A self-paced training curriculum covering MERIT functionality available through the NCUA’s Learning Management Service An...
Post a Comment
Read Complete Article HERE>»