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Latest Data Show Income May Be Up, But So is Inflation (And Sharply)

WASHINGTON–Americans’ personal income may have increased $90.4 billion (0.4%) in November, but they’re paying nearly 6% more for common goods and services compared with one year earlier, according to estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).

The BEA said disposable personal income (DPI) increased $70.4 billion (0.4%) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $104.7 billion (0.6%).

In addition, the BEA said real DPI decreased 0.2% in November and Real PCE increased less than 0.1%; spending on services increased 0.5% and spending on goods decreased 0.8%. Of particular concern to consumers, the BEA said the PCE price index increased 0.6%. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.5%, the Bureau added.

“The estimate for November personal income and outlays reflected the continued economic recovery and government response to the COVID-19 pandemic,” the BEA said in releasing its latest numbers. “Government social benefits increased in November, reflecting an increase in the Provider Relief Fund (extended by the American Rescue Plan) that was partly offset by declines in many other pandemic-assistance programs. The full economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be quantified in the personal income and outlays estimate because the impacts are generally embedded in source data and cannot be separately identified.”

According to the BEA, the increase in personal income in November primarily reflected increases in compensation of employees and government social benefits. Within compensation, the increase reflected increases in both private and government wages and salaries. Within government social benefits, an increase in "other" benefits (notably, an increase in the Provider Relief Fund to health care nonprofits) was partly offset by a decrease in unemployment insurance.

Other Data Points

Other data points included in the latest BEA numbers include:
The $104.7 billion increase in current-dollar PCE in November reflected an increase of $97.4 billion in spending for services and a $7.4 billion increase in spending for goods (table 3). The increase in services was widespread, led by housing and utilities. Within goods, an increase in nondurable goods (mainly gasoline and other energy goods) was partly offset by a decrease in durable goods (led by recreational goods and vehicles as well as motor vehicles and parts).
Personal outlays increased $106.3 billion in November. Personal saving was $1.25 trillion in November and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 6.9%.
The PCE price index for November increased 5.7% from one year ago, reflecting increases in both goods and services (table 11). Energy prices increased 34% while food prices increased 5.6%. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index for November increased 4.7% from one year ago.

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