CUNA Mutual’s chief economist Steve Rick is saying credit unions should not expect to see any recession in the next five years.

MADISON, Wis.–Absent any “swan events,” such as wars, new pandemics or meteor strikes, CUNA Mutual’s chief economist is saying credit unions should not expect to see any recession in the next five years.

As part of the company’s January Trends Report on credit union performance (see related story), CUNA Mutual’s Steve Rick said that even with the Fed expected to raise interest rates multiple times in 2022, CUNA Mutual is currently forecasting that real gross domestic product will rise 4% this year, which is twice the long-run average of 2% growth rate, “as consumers spend some of their built-up savings on services, business rebuild inventories, housing construction continues to expand and infrastructure spending increases.”


“With no recession expected for the next five years and therefore less economic uncertainty, many businesses will also decide to increase spending on capital investment and many households will decide to build new homes,” Rick stated in the Trends report. “These trends will keep growth rates above the 2% trend.”

During the pandemic, Rick said a “dramatic shift” occurred in the composition of household spending, where the amount spent on services declined while spending on goods increased.

An Aging Population

“Over the next few years, as we transition from a COVID pandemic to an endemic, consumer spending will transition back towards the pre-pandemic trend of higher spending on services,” forecast Rick. “This trend was mainly driven by an aging population demanding additional healthcare services.”