Skip to main content

Another big Fed rate hike is here to battle inflation. Economy hangs in balance!

 With prices rising at their fastest pace in a generation, the Federal Reserve is ratcheting up its fight against inflation.

On Wednesday, the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate by an additional three-quarters of a percentage point. This is the fourth time the central bank has raised rates this year.

Federal Reserve

It follows an increase of the same size in June — rate hikes at this pace and magnitude have not occurred since the late 1980s.

Despite these fast and furious moves, the central bank has its work cut out for it. Its goal is to rein in inflation without kickstarting a recession.

"The labor market is extremely tight, and inflation is much too high," Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at a news conference, where he explained the "unusually large" move up in rates.

He and his colleagues are trying to fight inflation by tackling demand. They are pushing up the cost of of credit — what consumers and companies pay to borrow money — and they are trying to deal with a jobs market the Fed chair has called "unsustainably hot," where wages are rising fast because many businesses are paying more to find workers.

In a statement, the Fed said that some parts of the economy — like spending and production — have weakened. However, it noted that "job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low."

The key goal, of course, is to fight inflation, which remains elevated at 9.1%, the highest in four decades. The Fed noted that pandemic's supply chain issues have continued to push prices and the Russia-Ukraine war is adding additional pressure on food and energy prices.

"My colleagues and I are acutely aware that high inflation imposes significant hardship, especially on those least able to meet the higher costs of essentials like food, housing and transportation," Powell said.

To do that, the Fed is ratcheting up interest rates. But this isn't a precise or painless process. As policymakers continue to raise rates, growth will slow further, and the unemployment rate, which is close to its pre-pandemic low, will rise.

In June, inflation rose by 9.1% from a year earlier, and the Fed is tackling a problem that is shaped by factors outside of its control.

The central bank is equipped to deal with demand, which surged as the U.S. emerged from the darkest days of the pandemic, but it can't fix supply chain issues or end the war in Ukraine, both of which have led to higher prices, especially of gasoline and food.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

The Skills Board Chairs Need Now: Leading Through Complexity, Not Control

NCOFCU Podcast   Grant Sheehan CCUE | CCUP | CEO-NCOFCU The role of the board chair has quietly—but fundamentally—changed. A decade ago, success was defined by experience, authority, and strategic judgment. Today, those traits are still relevant—but no longer sufficient. The modern board chair operates in a world shaped by competing stakeholder demands, technological disruption, geopolitical uncertainty, and increasing scrutiny. What emerges is a role that is less about control—and more about navigating complexity. Below are the core capabilities that now define effective board leadership. 1. From Authority to Orchestration The most important shift is conceptual. Board chairs are no longer expected to be the smartest voice in the room. Instead, they are expected to make the room smarter . This requires the ability to: Synthesize large volumes of information Reconcile conflicting perspectives Facilitate high-quality dialogue Traditional strengths like executive experience matter les...

On Stablecoins, NCUA Has Opportunity to Strike Right Balance and Get it Right

By Grant Sheehan As digital payments continue to evolve, the National Credit Union Administration’s (NCUA) efforts to establish a regulatory framework for stablecoins mark an important step forward. For credit unions, especially those serving mission-driven communities like firefighters and first responders, access to emerging financial technologies is not just an opportunity but a necessity to remain competitive and relevant. The  National Council of Firefighter Credit Unions  (NCOFCU) appreciates the  thoughtful input  provided by both America’s Credit Unions and the Defense Credit Union Council (DCUC) on the NCUA’s proposed stablecoin framework. We find strong merit in the recommendations of both organizations and believe their combined perspectives offer a constructive roadmap for getting this right. Important First Phase, But… At its core, the proposal represents an important first phase in implementing the stablecoin provisions of the GENIUS Act. Establishing a...

It All Starts in the Boardroom

It all starts in the boardroom—but the consequences are felt far beyond it. When Governance Breaks Down, Members Pay the Price Credit unions are built on a simple but powerful idea: they are owned by their members. Unlike traditional banks, where shareholders drive decisions, credit unions are meant to operate democratically—guided by a volunteer board elected by the very people they serve. But that model only works when participation exists. A governance breakdown happens when the people elected to oversee an institution stop truly representing the people who own it. In credit unions, this breakdown doesn’t usually come from scandal or sudden failure. It happens quietly, over time—through disengagement. The Root of the Problem: Low Engagement Most credit union members don’t vote. Board election turnout is typically in the low single digits. In some cases, it’s barely measurable. That means a very small percentage of the membership is effectively deciding who governs an institution th...

Sunday Reading - Why the IRS is necessary

  'Taxman'   Why the IRS is necessary The Internal Revenue Service, or IRS, is a division of the US Treasury Department created in 1862   that enforces the Internal Revenue Code —Title 26 of the US Code, a compilation of federal statutes—and, effectively, oversees tax collection. In 2024, the IRS's roughly 75,000 employees collected roughly $5T in tax revenue.   Given its role in diverting household income streams, it also has a bad reputation. Half of Americans had an "unfavorable view" of the IRS as of 2024 ( see data ). In a ranking of 16 well-known federal agencies by popularity that year, t...

It's Financial Literacy Month

April is Financial Literacy Month—a time dedicated to empowering individuals and families with the knowledge and tools needed to make informed financial decisions. Whether you're budgeting, saving, managing debt, or planning for the future, improving your financial literacy can have a lasting impact on your well-being. We invite you to explore our Consumer Education website, where you'll find helpful resources, tips, and guidance to support your financial journey. If you find it valuable, please share it with your family and friends—because financial knowledge is even more powerful when it’s shared. https://www.ncofcu.org/financial-literacy  ================================================= Remember, you're not alone with  NCOFCU.org Join/Upgrade Check out some of NCOFCU's additional features: Annual Conference First Responder Credit Union Academy Financial Literacy Podcasts YouTube Mini's Advocacy  

Growing Use of Stablecoins Could Reshape How FIs Manage Liquidity, Allocate Assets, NY Fed Report Suggests

NEW YORK — The growing use of stablecoins tied to the U.S. dollar could reshape how banks manage liquidity and allocate assets, potentially leading institutions that support the digital tokens to hold more reserves and make fewer loans, according to a new study from the  Federal Reserve Bank of New York . The paper, titled “ Stablecoin Disintermediation ,” was authored by economists Michael Junho Lee and Donny Tou and examines how stablecoin activity affects the balance sheets and liquidity management of banks that partner with stablecoin issuers. The researchers found that while stablecoins rely on traditional banks to function, the relationships can alter the liquidity demands placed on those institutions. Banks serving stablecoin issuers tend to hold larger reserve balances and reduce the share of assets devoted to lending, shifting toward a more reserve-heavy banking model. Focus of Study The study focused on developments following the March 2023 collapse of...

Why is NCUA Overlooking the Biggest Fee of All?

By Frank J. Diekmann NCUA has made a priority out of the F word in 2024—fees--announcing a special focus on NSF and OD fees this year.  And yet the agency seems to have little interest in the biggest and most egregious fee of all—the “merger” fee that comes when net worth isn’t returned to the people whose money it is in the first place, and it instead goes to insiders—often in amounts a multitude larger than any bounced check fee. It's sadly ironic that NCUA seems bothered by fees members opt into, but not by a merger fee they don’t seem able to opt out of. The merger fee is a hidden-in-plain-sight cost to members that is so brazen and increasingly occurring it has entered that dangerous territory of almost being taken for granted, wi...

The Federal Open Market Committee Up's Rates

WASHINGTON–As expected the Federal Open Market Committee at its meeting today moved to increase rates by a quarter-point to a range of 1.25% to 1.50%. In a statement accompanying the announcement, the Federal Reserve said data from November indicate the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a solid rate. “Averaging through hurricane-related fluctuations, job gains have been solid, and the unemployment rate declined further,” the Fed said. “Household spending has been expanding at a moderate rate, and growth in business fixed investment has picked up in recent quarters. On a 12-month basis, both overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy have declined this year and are running below 2%. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.” The Committee said it continues to expect that, with gradual...

One Proposed LIBOR Replacement Has ‘No Clothes,’ Says SEC Chairman

WASHINGTON–Gary Gensler, chairman of the Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC), believes one of the benchmarks being proposed as a replacement for LIBOR has “no clothes.” Gary Gensler In remarks before the Alternative Reference Rates Committee’s SOFR Symposium, Gensler said he was sharing his own views and not those of the SEC, and his view does not align with many of those backing a move to the Bloomberg Short-Term Bank Yield Index from the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR). “As some of you may know, when the topic of LIBOR comes up, I sometimes find myself thinking about Hans Christian Andersen and Warren Buffett. Others of you might be wondering why I’d mention these two men — born 125 years and an ocean apart — in the context of LIBOR,” Gensler told the meeting. “Well, as Hans Christian Andersen wrote in his famous folktale, ‘The Emperor’s New Clothes,’ the emperor has no clothes.” And who is the emperor? It’s many of the replacement rates being suggested to fill LIBO...

Newly Released Fed Minutes Show Policymakers Seeking to be Flexible on Rates

04/13/2023  Tweet WASHINGTON — Newly released minutes from the Federal Reserve’s March meeting show officials are seeking to remain flexible when it comes to future rate decisions. The paradox for the Fed remains that the labor market remains strong, even as inflation continues to be high, although it cooled in March, according to new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. “Central bankers have spent more than a year waging a battle against the most painful burst of price increases in decades, raising interest rates to slow the economy and to wrestle price increases under control,” noted the Wall Street...