Fed Expected to Announce Rate Increase Today As New Inflation Numbers Show Moderation; CU Economists Respond

12/13/2022 CUToday

WASHINGTON–With the Federal Reserve expected to announce another rate increase today, new data show consumer prices rose last month at the slowest 12-month pace since December 2021, credit union economists are saying.

Dr. Dawit Kebede

According to the Labor Department, the consumer price index climbed 7.1% in November over one year earlier, down significantly from 7.7% in October and down even further from the June 2022 peak of 9.1%.

Core CPI, which excludes volatile energy and food prices was up just over 6% from a year ago, slightly better than the 6.3% gain in October.

The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) is wrapping up two days of meeting today with most analysts expecting a 50-basis-point bump in rates as the central bank continues its attempts to tame inflation. A half-point increase would bring rates to a range between 4.25% and 4.5%, the highest level since December 2007.

CUNA: ‘Going in Right Direction’

“Inflation slowed down in November as the price of gasoline, used cars, medical care, and air travel declined. Increases in food and housing prices slightly offset these decreases resulting in monthly price bump of one-tenth of a percentage point,” said CUNA Senior Economist Dawit Kebede. “The headline inflation declined in November to 7.1% from 7.7% in October over a 12-month period.

“Most of the monthly increase in the consumer price index (CPI) comes from housing which is a lagged indicator. It takes over a year for the CPI to reflect current market trends,” Kebede continued. “Tight monetary policy which recently pushed mortgage rates very high led to home price declines in several places. However, it takes time for this current market trend to show up in the CPI.

“The Federal Reserve is expected to increase the fed funds rate by 50 basis points…moving away from the aggressive consecutive increases in the last four meetings. This CPI report shows that price trends are going in the right direction although inflation is still very high above target.”

NAFCU: Should be a ‘Healthy Holidays’

"According to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), headline inflation and core inflation moderated for a second consecutive month while remaining elevated above historic levels,” said NAFCU Economist Noah Yasif. “Headline CPI increased by 0.15 m/m in a marked deceleration from October’s reading, while also beating consensus estimates of 0.35 m/m. This decline was principally driven by lower energy prices, which contracted by 1.65 m/m, but offset by increased shelter and food costs, which increased by 0.65 m/m and 0.55 m/m respectively. Used vehicle prices, a major contributor to the initial inflation surge this year, also declined by 2.95 m/m.

“Against the backdrop of another, and final, FOMC meeting for 2022, November’s readings make these disinflationary trends harder to dismiss and provide grounding for the dovish faction of the FOMC to argue for a pause to rate hikes early next year,” Yasif continued. “These numbers also compliment recent readings of consumer sentiment, which are improving and which reflect less anxiety over inflation. Markets jumped on the news, and credit unions should anticipate a healthy holiday shopping season as households absorb the combination of a still-strong labor market, moderating inflation, rising investment values, and stable or falling borrowing rates."

Comments

NCUA Board briefed on four topics

The NCUA Board heard briefings on four topics during its meeting Thursday, including the status of the deregulation initiative, a clarification regarding existing rules applicable to brokered and reciprocal deposit arrangements, and the agency’s 2026-2030 Strategic Plan and 2026 Annual Performance Plan. Acting Director of the Office of Examination and Insurance Amanda Parkhill provided an overview of Phase 1 of the agency’s Deregulation Project, which focuses on targeted, technical changes to remove outdated or unnecessary requirements and improve clarity. The agency made it clear that the effort will likely continue into late 2026 or early 2027, evolving over time based on policy priorities and stakeholder input. NCUA General Counsel Frank Kressman briefed the board on brokered and reciprocal deposit arrangements and the NCUA’s FAQs on this topic. The briefing demonstrated how a brokered deposit network operates with respect to low-income designated (LID) FICUs ...

Read Complete Article HERE>»

How Your Bank/Credit Union Can Fight ‘Soft Switching’ — and Even Steal a Few Accounts of Your Own

Your Members Aren't Leaving in a Huff, They're Just Fading Away. Here's How to Stop It. “Soft switching” is picking up as Americans’ financial activity continues to fragment among multiple players, according to new research from JD Power. This trend has implications both for banks and credit unions that want to retain and grow existing relationships, as well as those that would also like to expand by snapping up accounts from other institutions. Key risk: Once someone establishes a relationship with another provider, their one-time primary financial institution risks slipping into second place — or even losing the relationship entirely. Need to Know: The average checking account customer now has three deposit accounts at different institutions, the study found. One out of five consumers moved money away from their primary financial institution in the past three months, according to the study, an increase over the 17% rate seen in the previous edition. Departures aren’t sud...

Read Complete Article HERE>»

Sunday Reading - Landmine Rat Honored

Landmine Rat Honored Cambodia unveiled the world’s first statue honoring a landmine-detecting rat (w/photo) Friday. Magawa the rat lived to 8 years old and identified more than 100 landmines and other explosives from 2016 to 2021. There are more than 100 African pouched rats deployed in landmine detection operations across the world. To identify mines, the rats are trained to sniff out explosive compounds like trinitrotoluene, or TNT. (The rats are not heavy enough to trigger detonation.) In Cambodia, up to 6 million landmines remain undiscovered, most planted during three decades of conflict, from the Vietnam War era through Cambodia's civil war . Since 1979, roughly 20,000 people have been killed in Cambodia, and roughly 40,000 wounded as a result of the mines. Magawa cleared more than ...

Read Complete Article HERE>»

It All Starts in the Boardroom

It all starts in the boardroom—but the consequences are felt far beyond it. When Governance Breaks Down, Members Pay the Price Credit unions are built on a simple but powerful idea: they are owned by their members. Unlike traditional banks, where shareholders drive decisions, credit unions are meant to operate democratically—guided by a volunteer board elected by the very people they serve. But that model only works when participation exists. A governance breakdown happens when the people elected to oversee an institution stop truly representing the people who own it. In credit unions, this breakdown doesn’t usually come from scandal or sudden failure. It happens quietly, over time—through disengagement. The Root of the Problem: Low Engagement Most credit union members don’t vote. Board election turnout is typically in the low single digits. In some cases, it’s barely measurable. That means a very small percentage of the membership is effectively deciding who governs an institution th...

Read Complete Article HERE>»

It's Financial Literacy Month

April is Financial Literacy Month—a time dedicated to empowering individuals and families with the knowledge and tools needed to make informed financial decisions. Whether you're budgeting, saving, managing debt, or planning for the future, improving your financial literacy can have a lasting impact on your well-being. We invite you to explore our Consumer Education website, where you'll find helpful resources, tips, and guidance to support your financial journey. If you find it valuable, please share it with your family and friends—because financial knowledge is even more powerful when it’s shared. https://www.ncofcu.org/financial-literacy ================================================= Remember, you're not alone with NCOFCU.org Join/Upgrade Check out some of NCOFCU's additional features: Annual Conference First Responder Credit Union Academy Financial Literacy Podcasts YouTube Mini's Advocacy

Read Complete Article HERE>»

On Stablecoins, NCUA Has Opportunity to Strike Right Balance and Get it Right

By Grant Sheehan As digital payments continue to evolve, the National Credit Union Administration’s (NCUA) efforts to establish a regulatory framework for stablecoins mark an important step forward. For credit unions, especially those serving mission-driven communities like firefighters and first responders, access to emerging financial technologies is not just an opportunity but a necessity to remain competitive and relevant. The National Council of Firefighter Credit Unions (NCOFCU) appreciates the thoughtful input provided by both America’s Credit Unions and the Defense Credit Union Council (DCUC) on the NCUA’s proposed stablecoin framework. We find strong merit in the recommendations of both organizations and believe their combined perspectives offer a constructive roadmap for getting this right. Important First Phase, But… At its core, the proposal represents an important first phase in implementing the stablecoin provisions of the GENIUS Act. Establishing a...

Read Complete Article HERE>»

Sunday Reading - Why the IRS is necessary

'Taxman' Why the IRS is necessary The Internal Revenue Service, or IRS, is a division of the US Treasury Department created in 1862 that enforces the Internal Revenue Code —Title 26 of the US Code, a compilation of federal statutes—and, effectively, oversees tax collection. In 2024, the IRS's roughly 75,000 employees collected roughly $5T in tax revenue. Given its role in diverting household income streams, it also has a bad reputation. Half of Americans had an "unfavorable view" of the IRS as of 2024 ( see data ). In a ranking of 16 well-known federal agencies by popularity that year, t...

Read Complete Article HERE>»

Where are your children banking?

Grant Sheehan CCUE | CCUP | CEO, NCOFCU The B reach Between Purpose and Experience Just recently, I came across a story that has stayed with me. It wasn’t dramatic in the traditional sense. There was no scandal, no crisis, no headline-grabbing failure. In fact, it was something much quieter than that. It was simply the story of an eighteen-year-old leaving his credit union. On the surface, that might not sound remarkable. Young people move their money frequently. They open new accounts, experiment with apps, follow trends, and often make financial decisions influenced by the digital tools at their disposal. But this story was different. This young man had been a credit union member since he was a few weeks old, as many credit unions do. His mother has spent her career working inside the credit union movement as an executive. For eighteen years, his financial life was connected to a credit union. If anyone might be expected to remain a lifelong member, it wou...

Read Complete Article HERE>»

Guardians Credit Union Moves Management Of Its ATM Fleet To Dolphin Debit

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla.—The $306-million Guardians Credit Union has turned management of its ATM fleet over to Dolphin Debit . Minire Syla The credit union has four ATMs at branches and 10 at various select employee group sites. The decision was a big move for Guardians, which had always managed its own ATM fleet, the CU stated. “Dolphin stood out because of their experience, reliability, and the fact that they could truly take the burden off our staff,” said Chief Financial Officer Minire Syla. “Their ability to manage everything seamlessly, combined with the marketing opportunities on ATM screens, made them the best choice for us.” The credit union said it had a number of key priorities for the move, and Syla explained that while reducing the burden on staff, compliance, and cost savings were all important, what was paramount was providing “the best possible experience for our members.” “The convenience and reliability of our ATMs are crucial and outsourcing to Dolphin...

Read Complete Article HERE>»

The Promise of Financial Technology. NCUA Board Member Rodney Hood

KEY WEST, Fla.–In what he said were his first remarks before a live audience in a year, NCUA Board Member Rodney Hood told a NAFCU meeting here he believes attention to financial technology (fintech) should be a priority, and that the agency will have some related regulatory guidance coming in the near future. Speaking to NAFCU’s CEOs and Senior Executives Conference here, Hood told his audience that as the pandemic subsides he wanted to focus his remarks on a single topic: “the promise of financial technology.” He related a discussion he had with the president of a small financial institution in Charlottesville, Va., that earlier this year started providing Bitcoin access at its branch locations and ATMs after customers had expressed interest. “They wanted to prove that smaller institutions could be just as innovative as the big national players,” said Hood. “Now, time will tell how this plays out. As I noted, we should view it as an experiment in customer service for now, until we ha...

Read Complete Article HERE>»

First-responder Credit Union Newsroom

Search This Blog