Skip to main content

CU Economists Still See Pause in Rate Increases Following Latest Jobs Reporting

WASHINGTON–The economy saw the second consecutive month of accelerated hiring in May  with the country adding a seasonally adjusted 339,000 new jobs.

In addition, the Bureau of Labor Statistics also revised upward the numbers for jobs added in March and April.

Kebede, Darwit

Dawit Kebede, CUNA

But employment is sending mixed signals, as the unemployment rate rose to 3.7%, still near historic lows but an uptick from April’s 3.4%.

According to the new jobs report, the hiring and low unemployment rate have put upward pressure on wages. Average hourly earnings grew a 4.3% in May over the prior year, similar to annual gains in March and Aprils, according to the government data.

The big question for many: what do the employment numbers mean for the Fed and whether it will again raise interest rates?

CUNA: Pause in Rates Likely   

“The economy added 339,000 jobs in May, which was much higher than the consensus expectation, signaling a stronger labor market. The report also revised up job gains in the prior two months by 93,000, bringing the three-month average job growth to 283,000,” said CUNA Senior Economist Dawit Kebede. “The average hourly earnings grew at an annualized rate of 3.7%, indicating moderating wage growth. The average workweek also declined slightly in May. This shows that the labor market is less tight compared to previous months, despite strong hiring.

Long, Curt

Curt Long, NAFCU

“The employment situation report is based on two different surveys conducted by the Bureau of Labor and Statistics,” Kebede continued. “The household survey is used to calculate the unemployment rate, while the establishment survey portrays the number of jobs employers added. The unemployment rate increased from 3.4% to 3.7% in May as households reported an increase in the number of people unemployed.

“The report supports the Federal Reserve's inclination to pause rate hikes in June. Although strong headline job numbers indicate continued hiring demand by employers, the increase in the unemployment rate, moderating wage growth, and decline in the average workweek all indicate moderating labor market conditions,” Kebede stated.

NAFCU: ‘Difficult to Parse’

“The May jobs report was a difficult one to parse, with a wide disparity in the two source surveys. The household survey was weak, showing increased unemployment, but the establishment survey beat expectations with 339,000 new jobs,” said NAFCU Vice President of Research and Chief Economist Curt Long. “The Fed had a high bar for a June hike and will likely not raise rates, but it’s difficult to rule out a July hike if forthcoming inflation data is strong.” – 

Comments

Post a Comment

Please no profanity or political comments.

Popular posts from this blog

A Perfect Example - What Makes Credit Unions Different from Banks!

When the government shutdown hit in October and paychecks stopped, thousands of federal employees were left wondering how to make ends meet. Credit unions across the country stepped up—but Keesler Federal Credit Union went above and beyond. No loans, no hassle—just your paycheck Instead of making members apply for emergency loans, Keesler Federal launched its Paycheck Relief Program. Revolutionary in its simplicity, it worked like this: if you were a federal employee with direct deposit at Keesler Federal, your paycheck kept coming—interest-free, fee-free, and stress-free. Each qualified member could receive up to $6,000 per pay period for as long as 90 days. No hoops, no headaches. From October 1 until the shutdown ended, Keesler Federal advanced more than 5,000 paychecks totaling $6.5 million to 1,710 members. For non-members, they even offered zero-interest loans up to $6,500 with a year to pay it back. This proactive approach meant that before the first missed paycheck, Keesler Fed...
Post a Comment
Read Complete Article HERE>»

Sunday Reading - What's the point of a consumer electronics show?

  What's the point of a consumer electronics show? Consumer electronics shows are large convention-type events where companies debut new technologies and products. The largest and most notable shows are CES in Las Vegas, a trade show every January, and IFA Berlin, which takes place annually in September. The events have historically introduced novel, cutting-edge products that later became household standards, like HDTVs, VCRs, DVDs, and gaming consoles ( see list ).   Over time, these shows evolved from product showcases ( see last year's coolest gadgets ) into complex industry ecosystems, serving as a meeting ground for startups, multinational technology companies, investors, and the media. Hardware launches, keynote speeches, and...
Post a Comment
Read Complete Article HERE>»

Eight Credit Unions Pay $42 Million in Special Dividends to 1.1 Million Members

  By  Jim DuPlessis   | January 05, 2026 at 04:00 PM So far this season, CU Times has tallied 19 credit unions, which have announced $160.3 million in special dividends for members.       Eight more credit unions have reported special dividends, paying their 1.1 million members $42.1 million in December and January. The bulk of the dividends came from Police and Fire Federal Credit Union of Philadelphia and Eastman Credit Union of Kingsport, Tenn., which each announced $16 million in rewards approved by their boards. The late January payout from Eastman ($9.7 billion, 356,492 members) will bring its total special dividends to $225 million since 1998. A news release from the credit union said “the Extraordinary Dividend is never guaranteed, but the strong financial performance of ECU in 2025 enabled the Board of Directors to approve this year’s $16 million payout.” Eastman’s $16 million payout represents about $47 per member and 19 basis points of its averag...
Post a Comment
Read Complete Article HERE>»

Syracuse Fire Department Credit Union

 Congrats, Tonia, on your promotion! ================================================= Remember, you're not alone with  NCOFCU.org Join/Upgrade Check out some of NCOFCU's additional features: First Responder Credit Union Academy Financial Literacy Podcasts YouTube Mini's Blog Job Board
Post a Comment
Read Complete Article HERE>»

Sunday Reaing - Can the seasons really make you depressed?

    Can the seasons really make you depressed? Seasonal affective disorder   is a form of depression that repeats during predictable seasonal shifts, impacting an estimated 5% of the global population—predominantly women. Symptoms of the condition occur with significant cyclical changes in daylight hours, with prevalence increasing in regions north of 40 degrees latitude (less commonly in the Southern Hemisphere). Its etiology—or root cause—remains unclear to researchers. Though “winter blues” are commonly reported, SAD is a distinct, diagnosed subtype of major depressive disorder first formally described in 1984 ( see criteria ). Key symptoms—lasting roughly four months each year—resemble common depression: fatigue, increased sleep, carbohydrate cravi...
Post a Comment
Read Complete Article HERE>»

New Year’s Resolution: Getting Your Estate in Order

        Helping families and their businesses plan for the future     Your Most Important New Year’s Resolution: Getting Your Estate in Order   Happy New Year to all. Every January, millions of Americans resolve to lose weight, exercise more, or learn a new skill. These are admirable goals. But there’s one resolution that matters more than all of them combined—one that most people avoid because it forces them to confront their own mortality. Get your estate in order. Not next year. Not when you retire. Now. The Problem With Tomorrow Here’s what I see constantly...
Post a Comment
Read Complete Article HERE>»

Strategies for Rebuilding Consumer Loans Post-Covid

  Here are strategies recommended by Kremer and D’Acierno for making the comeback: 1. Meet credit-ready consumers where they are looking for credit. Traditional outbound marketing, even in digital forms, depends on grabbing the right eyeballs at a time when the consumer is actually seeking credit. That’s a tough challenge, according to Kremer. He suggests that financial comparison sites, such as Bankrate.com, The Ascent and NerdWallet, present a better opportunity for exposure. Today’s consumers, should they not have an offer of financing directly with their prospective purchase, are not going to wait to stumble across a web banner promoting loans, suggests Kremer. Proactively, they go hunting the best credit deals, he says, and the comparison sites are the first stop. 2. Seek opportunities where people are seeking new credit. Even as the “new normal” continues to unfold, a key opportunity for lenders is the home improvement market, which began during the pandemic, a...
Post a Comment
Read Complete Article HERE>»

NAFCU is offering a free webinar today on PPP

ARLINGTON, Va.—NAFCU is offering a  free webinar today  to help credit unions better understand the process for offering loans through the Small Business Administration's new Paycheck Protection Program (PPP). Just a day ahead of the launch of the program itself, the SBA last week released an interim final rule to implement the program. In response,  NAFCU developed an FAQ document  answering 22 questions credit unions are likely to face as they consider participating in the program (see related story). Previous guidance from the Treasury Department indicated all federally-insured credit unions will be able to offer loans under the program, but those that are not currently SBA-approved lenders  must submit an application  to become one. During today’s webinar, set to begin at 4 p.m. ET, credit unions will hear from Steve Meirink, executive vice president and general manager of compliance solutions in the Governance, Risk & Compliance division a...
Post a Comment
Read Complete Article HERE>»

New Tool Seeks to Offer Better Insights into Range, Value of Electric Vehicles

LAWRENCEVILLE, Ga.—With electric cars (EVs) growing in acceptance and sales, a new tool is available to help consumers and lenders better understand the range (mileage capability on one charge)—and value—of each EV model. Black Book reported that it is integrating its VIN-specific data into a valuation tool built on Recurrent’s new Range Score. “Range Score makes it easier to understand expected range in a used EV by comparing a car’s current expected range to what was normal when new, which often differs from its EPA-rated range,” stated Black Book.  Added Jared Kalfus, president of Black Book, “By combining our vehicle valuation data with Recurrent’s battery health data, consumers and dealers alike can access first-of-its-kind insight int...
Post a Comment
Read Complete Article HERE>»

What Could Tokenized Deposits Mean for CUs?

WASHINGTON—Noting that the FDIC has expressed support for tokenized deposits as insured bank liabilities, not experimental digital assets, a new analysis offers some insights into what that could mean for financial institutions, credit unions and the market in 2026 and beyond.  As PYMNTS Intelligence pointed out in its report, regulatory clarity reduces risk for banks moving from pilots to live deployments, and large banks and infrastructure providers are already testing real-world tokenized deposit use cases.  “At its simplest, tokenization converts an existing claim into a digital representation on a distributed ledger,” the report explained. “The underlying asset does not change, but the infrastructure that tracks ownership and settlement does. In banking, that distinction is critical. Tokenized deposits do not create new money. They represent traditional bank deposits, issued and redeemed by regulated institutions but designed to operate on modern, programma...
Post a Comment
Read Complete Article HERE>»