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Existing Home Sales Fall in August, Down 15% from One Year Earlier

ARLINGTON, Va.—Existing home sales fell 2% in September to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 3.96 million units, representing a 15.4% decrease in sales versus a year ago, new data show.

“In September, existing home sales struggled, dipping below four million units sold for the first time since 2010,” said NAFCU Research Analyst John Hay. “Mortgage rates continue to climb despite growing evidence that the Fed has raised rates for the last time in this cycle. Thus far, rising rates have had a larger impact on supply as existing homeowners cling to pre-2022 mortgage rates. With rates now exceeding 8%, demand is likely to suffer more, which could impact prices. The median sales price fell in September, and year-over-year prices are up only 2.8%.”

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In September, sales fell in the West (-5.3%), followed by the Midwest (-4.1%) and the South (-1.1%). Sales rose 4.2% in the Northeast.

‘Rough Balance’

Based on current sales, there were nearly 3.4 months of supply at the end of September. Analysts consider six months of inventory a rough balance between supply and demand.

The median existing home price, not seasonally adjusted, fell 2.4% in September to $394,300, a 2.8% increase versus a year ago, Hay said.

“The Case-Shiller index—a more accurate price gauge—remained positive but did decelerate in June and July, which are the two most recent months available. NAFCU expects home sales to continue to slide modestly until rates stabilize,” concluded Hay.

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