Skip to main content

Many Questions, No Answers

By Michael Fryzel

Screenshot 2023-11-03 at 2.17.31 PM

For the last 24 months and for at least the next 14, the most talked about subject, has been and will be, the economy. 

Will inflation slow down? Will there be a recession? Will the Fed increase or decrease the interest rate? What will be the price of a gallon of gas? Will the holiday season be strong enough to save struggling retail stores? Will the cost of groceries ever go down? How high will mortgage rates go?

In addition, the crises erupting in Israel, Gaza and Ukraine will continue to be part of the nightly news, as will crime in our cities, devastating storms, worker strikes and the all-important question, will it be Biden vs Trump, again? 

All these “other” news events are important and will have an impact on individual lives across the world. And, each one of them, in some way, will have an impact on the economy; again, making it the one subject that will continue to dominate everyone’s life. 

Looking to the Experts

To get the answers to all these questions about the economy, everyone always looks to the experts. Every day economists are asked what they see happening today, tomorrow and the next day. The majority of them will pontificate. They will point to statistical data, historical trends, consumer borrowing and spending, and the wars in the Middle East and across the globe. As designated experts, they feel the need to respond even though what they may be saying is only their best guess.

In the past, economists have always based their predictions on past performance, length of cycles, regulatory action and world events to predict fairly well when things would get better and back to some resemblance of normality. Reliance on those benchmarks were once considered a reliable forecast for the future. Now, however, they haven’t proved to be the most accurate.

‘Not Going to Happen’

You are probably expecting a summary to this short dissertation that will include a list of what is needed to be done to put our country on a path to a strong economy and world peace. That’s not going to happen.

Just like the economists, the Federal Reserve, our illustrious Congress, political candidates and fortune tellers, I do not have any answers or predictions. 

What I do know, my fellow Americans, is what you know as well. We need to buckle up, because before it gets better, it’s going to get worse. 

Mr. Fryzel is the former chairman of NCUA who is now in private practice in Chicago.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

NCOFCU Newsletter

The Bucket Coach is a financial advice book designed by Fire Services Credit Union, Tronto, Canada. and written exclusively for Fire Fighters It's a practical guide for household financial management, including investments, credit and mortgages, and retirement. Developed with contributions from Fire Fighters," NCOFCU Newsletter : " Kevin Connolly Chief Executive Officer    Fire Services Credit Union Phone: 416-440-1294 ext 301  Toll Free: 1-866-833-3285 E-mail:  kevin@firecreditunion.ca 1997 Avenue Rd Toronto, ON M5M 4A3 

CUNorthwest Todd A. Powell Award is SFCU CEO Gayle Furness.

Spokane Firefighters Credit Union Big Enough to Serve. Small Enough to Care. This year’s recipient of the CUNorthwest Todd A. Powell Award is SFCU CEO Gayle Furness. Like Todd, Gayle has been instrumental in the growth, as well as the safety and soundness, of the credit union. Congrats to Gayle for living up to the standard that Todd created for our organization and the greater credit union community. __ ________________________________ Check out NCOFCU's additional features: First Responder Credit Union Academy Podcasts YouTube Mini's Blog Job Board

The Shrinking Pool of Small Credit Unions: Why It Matters & What We Can Do About It. - Henry Meier, Esq.

  Henry Meier, Esq. Henry Meier is the former General Counsel of the New York Credit Union Association, where he authored the popular New York State of Mind blog. He now provides legal advice to credit unions on a broad range of legal, regulatory and legislative issues. He can be reached at (518) 223-5126 or via email at  henrymeieresq@outlook.com . For as long as I’ve been around the industry, I’ve heard concerns about the demise of the small credit union. But I’ve come to realize it’s a lot like the weather: Everyone talks about it, but no one does anything about it. This is unfortunate. We need credit unions of all shapes and sizes to survive, and if we don’t take action soon, it will be too late.  Fortunately, there are steps the industry can take to potentially decrease the rate at which small credit unions are disappearing by making it viable for credit unions to survive by getting larger credit unions interested in making the necessary investments to keep the sma...

What Are Your Plans -As Government Shutdown Continues, Credit Unions Expand Offers of Assistance

BILOXI, Miss.— With the federal government shutdown now entering its second week, an increasing number of credit unions across the country are offering relief and financial assistance. All indications are the shutdown is no closer to ending than it has been since it began on Oct. 1. While the House has passsed a continuing resolution (CR) to fund government operations in the short term, the Senate remains at an impasse, even as it has scheduled a vote for today. In addition to the earlier assistance reported by the CU Daily  here , the latest pledges to support members include: • In Biloxi, Miss., Keesler FCU said it is offering paycheck relief for all eligible federal employees affected by the shutdown and will advance the amount of direct deposit paychecks for eligible members during the shutdown for up to 90 days. There is no cost or fee to enroll in the program. • In Nebraska, Cobalt Credit Union is offering furloughed members loans of up to $5,000 with no fees or interest...

Sunday Reading - FIRE, 101 - “financial independence, retire early,”

  Retiring at 30     FIRE, 101 Most US workers aim to retire around age 65—but for many followers of the FIRE movement, which stands for “ financial independence, retire early ,” that’s not the case. FIRE followers, who range from low- to high-income workers, typically prioritize high savings rates, relatively frugal living, and aggressive investing strategies in an effort to work less and enjoy life more in the long-term ( see five distinct approaches ). While many proponents argue that the movement is more of a mindset about achieving financial freedom than any ...