Skip to main content

Jobs report 'suggests a bit less recession risk than you might have thought,' economist says

Provided by Dow Jones

By Victor Reklaitis

Another view on Friday's payrolls data: 'There is still some sizzle left in the labor market'

The November jobs report on Friday showed the U.S. economy gained 199,000 positions last month, with the unemployment rate dipping to 3.7% from 3.9%.

Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had expected an addition of 190,000 jobs and unemployment staying at 3.9%.

See: Jobs report shows 199,000 gain in November. Wages rise sharply.

Below are some initial reactions from economists and other analysts, including their views on what the jobs report means for the Federal Reserve as the central bank's Federal Open Market Committee considers how to proceed with interest-rate hikes. The main U.S. stock indexes SPX (ES00) looked set to trade lower following the hotter-than-expected data for nonfarm payrolls, also called NFP.

. "Overall this suggests a bit less recession risk than you might have thought ... & a bit more inflation risk. But really only a bit of each - with soft landing dominant." - Jason Furman, a Harvard economics professor and former Obama economic adviser, in a tweet

Related: Wall Street is again worried about an imminent recession. Here's what the data show, and what it might mean for your portfolio.

. "Today's November jobs report showed there is still some sizzle left in the labor market with wage growth accelerating and the unemployment rate edging down. ... Nominal wage growth re-ignited at 0.4% m/m [month over month], up from 0.2% the prior month. Today's report will raise some eyebrows in the FOMC and is a reminder that the labor market remains tight." - Ali Jaffery, senior economist at CIBC Capital Markets, in a note

. "This month's strong jobs growth is yet another sign the economy is persevering as fears of a recession are lessening. As we head into 2024, we expect interest rates will remain elevated for the time being but are hopeful the Fed may begin to cut rates toward the middle of the year, providing some much-needed financial relief on borrowing costs for American consumers." - Steve Rick, chief economist at TruStage, in a note

. "Today's jobs report confirms the residual strength of the U.S. labor market. While we've been seeing some cooling in recent months, job growth is still strong by historical standards, and the 3.7% unemployment rate reflects an economy where the vast majority of those who want a job can get a job. Critically, the report also shows nominal wage growth at a level which would be consistent with the Fed's 2% inflation target, so I don't think this report changes the calculus for next week's Fed meeting." - Jesse Wheeler, senior economist at Morning Consult, in a note

. "The 199,000 increase in November payroll employment included 47,000 workers returning from strikes (30,000 UAW members and 17,000 SAG-AFTRA members). Stripping out that one-off boost, the 152,000 gain was roughly the same as the muted increase in October. ... Trend employment growth, particularly in cyclical sectors, continues to weaken, but there are few signs of any labor market capitulation. We expect the economy to narrowly avoid a recession. But, with core inflation rapidly normalizing, the Fed will pivot to rate cuts next spring." - Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist at Capital Economics, in a note

-Victor Reklaitis

This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal. 

Comments

Post a Comment

Please no profanity or political comments.

Popular posts from this blog

Why Auto Lending Is Starting To Stand Out As A Real Threat To CUs

  By Ray Birch MILWAUKEE—Auto lending is emerging as one of the biggest areas of risk for credit unions, even as the broader U.S. economy continues to perform better than many expected, according to Bill Handel, chief economist at Raddon, a Fiserv company. Delinquency trends in auto portfolios are now approaching levels last seen during the Great Financial Crisis, Handel said, driven by a combination of high vehicle prices, elevated interest rates and increasing financial pressure on lower-income consumers. “There’s probably still a lot of risk in the auto portfolios,” Handel said. “Our numbers in terms of delinquency behavior in the United States are now rivaling what they were during the Great Financial Crisis.” Economy Holding Up Better Than Expected Despite those pockets of risk, Handel said the broader economy remains surprisingly resilient. “If you look at the U.S. economy, it’s actually performing quite well—probably better than most people would have anticipated,” he said. ...
Post a Comment
Read Complete Article HERE>»

When Cooperation Turns To Competition: A Turning Point For The Firefighter Credit Union Movement

  By Grant Sheehan For decades, firefighter credit unions have stood as a model of what cooperative finance is meant to be—institutions built not to compete ruthlessly, but to serve a shared mission: supporting the financial well-being of those who risk their lives in service to others. That’s what makes the recent actions of Firefighter First Credit Union so concerning. Firefighter First FCU was not just another participant; it was a founding member of the National Council of Firefighter Credit Unions (NCOFCU). It helped shape the very principles of collaboration, mutual respect, and non-encroachment that have long defined our community. Those principles weren’t accidental; they were intentional safeguards to ensure that firefighter-focused credit unions could grow together, not at each other’s expense. But something has changed. Firefighter First FCU’s decision to pursue a nationwide charter marks a clear shift in direction—from cooperation to direct competition. This isn’t simpl...
Post a Comment
Read Complete Article HERE>»

Small Credit Unions Don’t Lack Representation—They Lack Board Education

  By Grant Sheehan Let’s be clear— representation  for small credit unions is not something new that suddenly needs to be invented. For more than 150 years in Europe and 115 years in the U.S., many of us—along with numerous trade groups representing postal workers, schools, hospitals, the military, first responders, electricians, welders, auto workers, and many other sponsor employee groups—have been actively representing and supporting small credit unions. The mission has always been the same: protect these institutions and ensure they have a voice. The real challenge facing small credit unions has never been a lack of organizations claiming to represent them. The challenge has been engagement and education. Many small credit unions operate with extremely limited resources. Their boards are made up of volunteers who already have full-time careers. Even when scholarships, training opportunities, and conferences are offered, the realities of travel costs, staffing shortages, op...
Post a Comment
Read Complete Article HERE>»

With Graham Signaling New Budget Bill, Credit Unions Brace For Tax Debate

By Ray Birch WASHINGTON— Senate Budget Committee Chairman Lindsey Graham’s comments Wednesday that Republicans will “expeditiously move toward creating a second budget reconciliation bill” are giving new shape to what had been a speculative discussion in Washington—and prompting renewed attention within the credit union industry to whether the movement’s federal tax exemption could again surface as lawmakers look for possible offsets. In a post on X, Graham said that after consulting with President Trump, his team and Senate Majority Leader John Thune, the Senate Budget Committee will move quickly on a second reconciliation package focused on “adequate funding to secure our homeland” and support for the military. The remarks are notable because they offer one of the clearest indications yet that a second fast-track budget measure—previously discussed but far from certain—may now be gaining traction. CUToday.info on Wednesday reached out to House Budget Committee Chairman Jodey Arringto...
Post a Comment
Read Complete Article HERE>»

Sunday Reading - How were the National Parks started?

  America's 'Best Idea'       How were the National Parks started? America's National Park System includes roughly 85 million acres of US territory, equal to the size of Germany, set aside by federal law for preservation. There are 63 areas officially designated as national parks—including the Grand Canyon, the Great Smoky Mountains, and Acadia—and more than 400 additional smaller units ( see map ). In 1872, Yellowstone was established   as the first national park dedicated to public enjoyment and recreation, though its foundation also  displaced several Native American tribes . By 1916, the growing system required the creation of the National Park Service to preserve its lands for future generations. Eventually, hunting and logging were banned in the parks, though regulated extractive activity is still permitted in nati...
Post a Comment
Read Complete Article HERE>»

World's Happiest Country

  World's Happiest Country   Finland was named the world’s happiest country for the ninth consecutive year, the latest World Happiness Report revealed. Nordic countries—including Denmark, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden—also ranked in the top 10.  Analysts attribute Finland’s joy factor to its wealth, social safety network, and high life expectancy, among factors. Afghanistan maintained its place as the world’s unhappiest country. The results were based on answers from roughly 100,000 people in 140 countries and territories. Respondents were asked to rank their life satisfaction on a scale of 0 to 10. Finnish respondents gave an average life satisfaction score of 7.7; Afghans answered 1.4. The US, in 23rd place, reported an average score of 6.8. Explore rankings here . The report's authors cautioned this year that social media use is driving population-level drops in reported well-being among adolescents. Young English...
Post a Comment
Read Complete Article HERE>»

James Hunter, Executive Director of Credit Union Development for New Orleans Firemen’s CU, knows too well how expensive it is to be poor.

  NEW ORLEANS FIREMEN’S FCU 􀀁 METAIRIE, L   A passion for empowerment James Hunter knows too well how expensive it is to be poor. It’s what he sees every day as mortgage director and executive director of credit union development for $182 million asset New Orleans Firemen’s Federal Credit Union, Metairie, La., and executive director of The Faith Fund, a nonprofit partnership that seeks to provide a financial hand-up to the undeserved. It’s what inspires him to come to work every day and drives his passion of empowering people and setting them on the path to financial security. “Too many people are too far away from the starting line,” Hunter says. “Payday loans are a big business in Louisiana. Exorbitant fees and interest from payday loans drain more than a quarter of a billion dollars a year. Baton Rouge supports one of the top three pay-day loan markets in the U.S.” The Faith Fund was formed to counteract that. It’s a unique cooperative relationship between like-minded busi...
Post a Comment
Read Complete Article HERE>»

Lifesaving Companion Dog Takes On New Role With Injured Firefighter « CBS New York

Lifesaving Companion Dog Takes On New Role With Injured Firefighter « CBS New York : "NEW YORK (CBSNewYork) — A badly injured New York firefighter received a companion dog whose already saved people’s lives from fire. As CBS2’s Dave Carlin reported, disabled firefighter Tom Prin beamed as he was officially presented with his new canine companion Halona inside of a packed ceremony in Suffolk County. The former firefighter was one of 15 people receiving their canine companions. Prin was chosen because of what he’s been through — after fracturing his neck and back while responding to a Brooklyn fire. “When I was going from the third to fourth floor, the steps gave out and I fell through the fire escape,” he said. Prin has endured five spinal surgeries, but the Holtsville man will now be comforted by Halona who has quite the lifesaving resume herself." Click HERE to read full story and see video 'via Blog this'
Post a Comment
Read Complete Article HERE>»

What Trump’s ‘one big beautiful’ tax-and-spending package means for your money!

  Trump’s megabill will bring sweeping changes for household finances. President  Donald Trump  signed his “one big beautiful” tax-and-spending package on July 4 — legislation that will bring sweeping changes to Americans’ finances.  After the  Senate passed its version  on July 1, the House Republicans on July 3  voted to approve  the multi-trillion-dollar domestic policy legislation and send it to Trump’s desk for signature. The final bill makes permanent Trump’s  2017 tax cuts  while adding new relief, including a senior “bonus” to  offset Social Security taxes  and a  bigger state and local tax deduction . The plan also has tax breaks for  tip income , overtime pay and  auto loans , among other provisions.  The GOP’s marquee legislation will also enact deep spending cuts to social safety net programs such as  Medicaid  and food stamp benefits,  end tax credits tied to clean energy  an...
Post a Comment
Read Complete Article HERE>»

Boston Firefighters Credit Union can open membership to police officers

  By Deirdre Fernandes Globe Staff  February 12, 2015 The Boston Firefighters Credit Union will be able to open its membership to the city’s police officers and other law enforcement officials, a Suffolk County Superior Court judge ruled Thursday. Judge Mitchell Kaplan rebuffed an attempt by the City of Boston Credit Union to stop the firefighters credit union from expanding its membership and taking away some of its most lucrative customers: police officers, who are among the highest-paid city employees. The turf battle between the two financial institutions grew unusually emotional as they accused each other of distorting facts and invoking the events surrounding the Boston Marathon bombing to promote their cause. David Cotney, the state’s commissioner of banks, had approved the firefighters’ expansion plans in November. But the city’s credit union filed a court injunction to stop it. In his decision dismissing the case, Judge Kaplan said the commissioner’s decision ...
Post a Comment
Read Complete Article HERE>»