New Consumer Price Data Make it Very Unlikely Fed Will Raise Rates at Meeting Today

WASHINGTON–The Fed is unlikely to announce a rate increase when it adjourns its meetings today, given the newest inflation numbers.

Curt Long

New data from the Labor Department reveal inflation held steady in November, primarily due to price decreases in gasoline and long-lasting goods, while costs around housing, transportation and some other services rose.

The Fed’s Open Market Committee will conclude its two days of meeting this afternoon.

Overall, the consumer price index was up 3.1% in November, down slightly from October’s 3.2%, according to the Labor Department.

Inflation held nearly steady in November, as cost declines for gasoline and long-lasting goods mostly offset price increases for housing, transportation and some other services.

Core prices, which strip out volatile food and energy components, rose 4% in November from a year earlier, the same as October. On a monthly basis, core prices rose 0.3%, faster than would be consistent with the Federal Reserve’s long-term inflation target of 2%.

A Downward Trend

"November inflation data came in slightly above expectations but remained in a downward trend,” said NAFCU VP-Research and Chief Economist Curt Long. “Areas that surprised to the upside included shelter and used cars, but those should be one-offs as private data on apartment rents and wholesale vehicle prices suggest that further disinflation is in store. NAFCU still expects that the FOMC is done hiking rates, and that the first rate cut will come in the second quarter of 2024."

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