Skip to main content

Deposit Times Are Changing

04/22/2024 07:27 pm

By Ray Birch

LAKE FOREST, Ill.— While the U.S. money supply in recent years has appeared to be stable, one economist says that’s not the case, adding that money supply components have been moving as wildly as a theme park ride and affecting deposits at FIs across the country.

“What’s the story?” asked Michael Moebs, economist and chair of Moebs $ervices, whose new study takes a detailed look at money supply components. “Insured transactions have fallen but are at an all-time high since 1914. Insured savings are making a big comeback. And uninsured deposits are soaring with insured deposits. Total money supply is far from stable. It is like a Disney amusement park ride with people looking suspiciously calm after a wild ride where each screamed and yelled as limbs and bodies were thrown around.”

Feature Money Supply

Moebs said Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s “new definition of money,” announced in the second quarter of 2020, has finally been implemented by financial institutions of all sizes.

“FIs all over are marketing and selling as dollars and accounts are moving to the best deals and highest rates,” he said.

chart

What Happened in 2023

Moebs detailed what happened with money supply in 2023:

  • Regular DDA (no interest) accounts fell slightly, by (1.7%) or about $90 billion, yet are still at their highest levels since 1914 when the Fed starting tracking money
  • Interest paying DDA levels fell (11.5%), the lowest since COVID started in U.S in. January 2020
  • Savings levels dropped dramaticaly (13.9% or $1.5 trillion), and are at their lowest level since COVID started. “In March 2020, when Powell eliminated reserve requirements and monthly transaction restrictions moving savings to M1, the bell started tolling for savings,” Moebs said. “The saver is moving money to DDA since saving rates are less than an average of 25 BPS. Plus, DDA is where stimulus funds came into play and have left about $1 trillion”
  • M2 was left with term-money CDs and retirement accounts (IRAs and Keoghs)
Moebs Mike

Michael Moebs

Additional Changes—And a First

Moebs highlighted the major money supply changes that ocurred last year:

  • Retail CDs had a huge resurgence “after almost dying” during COVID. Retail CDs increased 282% in 2023 and now are over $1 trillion
  • Jumbo CDs surged 46.7% to more than $800 billion

“For the first time since starting in 1962, retirement accounts at depositories dropped (19.3%),” Moebs said. “Why the dramatic shift in money? The answer is rates. Wall Street rates are being offered for all CDs and staying low for IRAs and Keoghs. M3 is money market mutual funds. Rates for MMMFs soared and funds poured in. Dollars mainly came from depositories. The most sensitive was depository retirement deposits.”

Effect on Money Stock

Moebs reiterated that pricing is influencing money stock.

“Gathering funds has gone beyond deposit insurance caps of $250,000. Risk is fundamental to price. Depositories need to adhere to analytical systems such as debit scoring and forego judgemental approaches,” Moebs said. “CDs are returning. Savings are falling. DDA is high. MMMFs on Wall Street are soaring. The signals call for new and different methods for managing deposit portfolios. Info is vital.  Measuring and pricing is essential. Deposit times are changing.”

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

NCOFCU Newsletter

The Bucket Coach is a financial advice book designed by Fire Services Credit Union, Tronto, Canada. and written exclusively for Fire Fighters It's a practical guide for household financial management, including investments, credit and mortgages, and retirement. Developed with contributions from Fire Fighters," NCOFCU Newsletter : " Kevin Connolly Chief Executive Officer    Fire Services Credit Union Phone: 416-440-1294 ext 301  Toll Free: 1-866-833-3285 E-mail:  kevin@firecreditunion.ca 1997 Avenue Rd Toronto, ON M5M 4A3 

How Stablecoins Could Prove to Be Anything But Stable for CUs That Don’t Get Moving

LOST PINES, Texas–With the GENIUS Act enacted and the countdown on for NCUA and regulators to get rules in place for stablecoins, credit unions were told it’s “go time” to begin preparing for a new technology that could “eat the lunch” of interchange. The cautionary words came from  Dr. Lamont Black , an associate professor at the Driehaus College of Business at DePaul University, where among other things he teaches a graduate course on cryptocurrency, and who is also a fellow in Filene’s Credit Union of the Future Center of Excellence, and who s well-known to many in credit unions for his work and insights.  After several years of speaking to credit unions on crypto, he told  Catalyst Corporate’s  Strategic Summit meeting he has pivoted now due to the rapid change taking place, and in addition to talking about AI (see separate reporting in the CU Daily), he has a warning for CUs when it comes to another emerging technology. Eating the Lunch of Payments “I believe st...

Sunday Reading - What is the Dow Jones?

    What is the Dow Jones? Created in 1896, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is one of the world’s oldest and most widely recognized stock indexes—a measure tracking the stock performance of a selected group of companies ( see most recent data ). Originally designed to track America’s leading industrial firms, the Dow has evolved into a cultural and financial shorthand for the health of the US economy. As of 2025, it measures 30 major companies —like McDonald's, Boeing, and Nike—across sectors such as technology, healthcare, finance, and consumer goods.  Unlike most modern indexes, which are weighted by the total value of a company’s shares, the DJIA uses a price-weighted formula —meaning stocks with higher share prices exert more influence, regardless of company size. The DJIA has been updated 59 times since its creation to reflect changes in the US economy ( see ch...

Fed Chair Says Strength of Economy Allowing it to be Patient With Any Rate Cuts

WASHINGTON–Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the strength of the economy is giving the central bank flexibility to be patient when it comes to cutting rates. Jerome Powell This year has been filled with predictions over when the Fed will move to reduce rates, including by credit union economists. But inflation has been more stubborn than many had forecast, and most now say it will be June at the earliest before the Fed makes any move. Last week, a new report showed inflation in February was 2.5%, far below the 7% peak seen in 2022 and closer to the Fed’s 2% target. In an interview last week with the National Public Radio’s Marketplace program, P...

Zelle Says It Will Allow Users to Make International Payments Using Stablecoins

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz .–   Zelle  has announced plans to allow users to start making international payments using stablecoins. The move by Early Warning Services, which operates the P2P payments network Zelle and which is owned by a consortium of large banks, comes in the wake of the passage of the GENIUS Act, which is designed to usher stablecoins into the regulated financial system. Stablecoins are a digital currency that is pegged to a fiat currency such as the U.S. dollar. As the CU Daily reported  here , credit unions were strongly urged during an event last week to not just start paying attention to stablecoins but to begin taking action as interchange income is threatened. Similarly, analysts said the move by Zelle to help users move money across borders is a defensive move in response to what is expected to be the growing use of stablecoins by consumers and businesses. Early Warning Services did not indicate how it would work or when it would launch, according to sever...

Your Credit Union CAN Use Public Fund Deposits To Fund Assets

By Corporate One Federal Credit Union Once largely thought of as taboo, the use of external funding is now widely accepted throughout the credit union industry. In fact, the NCUA has required all credit unions to seek multiple liquidity sources and document those sources in their liquidity policy. As the acceptance of external funding has improved, credit unions are increasingly sourcing funds from many channels, including the Federal Home Loan Bank System, the corporate credit union network, and several non-member deposit channels, such as public fund deposits. Yes, public fund deposits are being increasingly sourced to fund credit union assets. Increasing Growth, Benefits, And Uses Total member and non-member government deposits totaled $5.4 billion at year-end 2017. This is an increase of 27% since 2015. While this amount pales in comparison to total deposits and other liabilities, how important are these deposits to the nearly 500 credit unions who report them?...

Sunday Reading - What is the Erie Canal?

  Gateway to the West     What is the Erie Canal? The Erie Canal is a 363-mile waterway in New York connecting the Great Lakes to the Atlantic seaboard, from the Hudson River at Albany to Lake Erie at Buffalo ( see map ). Initiated in 1817 for $7M (nearly $200M today), the canal was America’s first major infrastructure project and revolutionized trade and commerce in the United States. The project relied on self-taught amateurs —including teachers, judges, and surveyors. The workers, nearly 50,000, dug the entire canal with hand tools, picks, and gunpowder (dynamite had not yet been invented). The original Erie Canal had 83 locks, each designed to be...

Powell Rejects Any Plan for Fed to Intervene in Secondary Market to Bring Down Rates

  Frank Diekmann October 20, 2025 2:22 am No Comments PHILADELPHIA–Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said there are no plans for the central bank to directly intervene in secondary mortgage markets in an attempt to help bring down mortgage rates, an idea some have proposed as a means of addressing the affordability crisis In housing. Jerome Powell Speaking at the  National Association for Business Economics  conference in Philadelphia, Powell spoke to the Fed’s progress with “quantitative tightening,” that is, its work to reduce the more than $6 trillion of securities it holds on its  balance sheet . Read more about the Balance Sheet HERE Those holdings include approximately $2 trillion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS), which are bundles of home loans that are packaged together and sold to investors, usually by middlemen  Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac , noted Realtor.com. Rolling Off Balance Sheet As the report noted, the Fed dramatically increased M...

No Bonuses, No Problem: Why Credit Unions Are Rethinking Incentive Models

Cooperatives across the country are taking a fresh look at employee motivation, with some moving toward a more holistic approach to compensation. Marc Rapport Point/Counterpoint: This story is part of Callahan’s new “Point/Counterpoint” series, examining credit union issues from multiple perspectives. Want a different take on incentives? Learn how two credit unions align staff efforts with organizational goals to boost the bottom line and enhance member value in “Incentives That Power Performance And Improve Outcomes.” Top-Level Takeaways Capital Credit Union’s transition away from individual performance-based incentives has resulted in improved employee engagement, lower turnover, and better member service. Seattle Credit Union is still evaluating the effectiveness of incentive programs, balancing ...

New from AutoLink

New from AutoLink