MADISON, Wis.—The current rate environment, for a change, may actually be favoring small CUs, data from TruStage’s latest Trends Report show.
The September Trends Report, which is based on CU performance through July, reveals the credit union return-on-asset ratio fell to 0.66% in the first six months of 2024, on an annualized basis, down from 0.78% in the first six months of 2023.
The 12-basis point decrease in earnings during the last year was driven by a 15-basis point increase in provisions for loan losses as a percent of average assets, and a 7-basis point increase in operating expense ratios, the report states.
Higher Earnings
Partially offsetting the expense increase was a 3-basis point increase in net interest margins and a 6-basis point increase in fee and other income ratios. Credit unions with assets greater than $50 million reported a drop in earnings while smaller credit unions reported higher earnings due to the difference in the increase in their cost of funds ratios.
Steve Rick
“For example, billion-dollar credit unions saw their cost of funds ratios rise from 1.33% during the first half of 2023, to 2.03% in the first half of 2024, a 70-basis point increase. Meanwhile, credit unions with assets less than $20 million saw their cost of funds increase from 0.45% in 2023 to 0.81% in 2024, a 36-basis point increase,” wrote TruStage Chief Economist Steven Rick. “This cost of funds disparity is due to bigger credit unions relying more on higher-cost money market and certificates of deposit accounts for funding. So, for the first time in many years, these smaller credit unions reported a return-on-asset ratio similar to the billion-dollar credit unions.”
Membership Growth
Aside from rates, small shops continued to struggle, particularly with membership growth. Credit union memberships grew 0.1% in July 2024, below the 0.4% reported in July 2023, due to a significant reduction in auto loan originations and slower job growth. On an annual growth rate basis, memberships are up only 1.2% in the year ending in July 2024, below the 4.3% pace set in the year ending in July 2023. ‘
“This 1.2% pace is the slowest since the tail end of the Great Recession in November 2011. The membership growth slowdown was partially driven by the 2.4 million jobs gained during the last year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which is below the 3.2 million jobs gained in the year ending in July 2023,” Rick wrote.
The slowdown in membership growth in 2024, compared to 2023, was seen across the board. Most credit unions with less than $100 million in assets reported negative membership growth while credit unions with assets greater than $1 billion reported relatively strong membership growth of 3.8% due to organic growth and mergers.
“Credit unions should expect membership growth around 1.5% in 2024, and a slightly better 1.8% membership growth is forecasted for 2025 as loan growth picks up,” Rick said.
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