MADISON, Wis.– Noting it’s “that time a year to make economic projections for 2026,” TruStage’s economists are offering their preview for what they believe lies ahead. “We expect real GDP to expand 1.5% in 2026, below the 1.8% pace for 2025, and lower than the 2% long run trend growth rate,” wrote the company’s chief economist, Steve Rick, in TruStage’s newest Trends Report. “Growth will be slightly weaker than normal due to tariff policy uncertainty, restrictive monetary policy and slower labor force growth.” The report states that inflation is expected to be 3% in 2026, only falling slightly from the 3.1% pace this year. “We expect inflation to run above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target as firms pass through any additional tariff costs and the slow growth in labor force will keep upward pressure on wage growth,” the report observes. “This stubbornly high inflation will ensure monetary policy stays restrictive for most of 2026.” The Trends Report notes that the unemploymen...
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