Skip to main content

Here is What’s Being Forecast in CUNA’s Newest Economic Update

 WASHINGTON–A new economic update has been released by CUNA’s senior economist, Dawit Kebede.

Kabede

Dr. Dawit Kebede

The findings in the November 2023 CUNA Economic Update include:

  • CUNA’s forecast group –which includes seven current and former CUNA economists—pegs the odds of recession through year-end 2024 at 33%.
  • CUNA economists believe the Federal Reserve will hold rates and not continue rate hikes.   “Many people who were on student loan forbearance accumulated a lot of debt,” said Kebede. “However, research from Arizona University broken down by financial institutions indicates that credit union members did not accumulate significant debt during this period. Credit union members increased their debt by 8.45%, compared to 25%-30% for banks and national credit card companies.”
  • Gross domestic product (GDP) will track 2.5% growth in 2023, with CUNA forecasting 1.5% GDP growth in 2024 as consumer spending slows. 
  • The unemployment rate will remain around 3.9%, but will increase to 4.3% in 2024. 
  • CUNA economists are predicting year-end credit union savings growth of 0% and loan growth of 8%. In 2024, they forecast 4% loan growth and 3% savings growth.  
  • Credit unions’ loan-to-savings ratio was 85.1% as of September 2023, up from 81.5% at year-end 2022. By year-end 2023, CUNA economists predict this measure will reach 88.3%—a 40-year high. The delinquency and charge-off forecast for 2023 is 0.75% and 0.55%, respectively. 

Comments

Post a Comment

Please no profanity or political comments.

Popular posts from this blog

Unlocking the Power of Emeritus Board Positions in Credit Unions

  Explore how the Emeritus Board Position in credit unions honors long-serving members, offering them a chance to mentor new leaders while maintaining strategic influence without the responsibilities of active board roles.
Post a Comment
Read Complete Article HERE>»

Both Sides of The Desk!

With over 50 years of experience in the credit union sector, I have had the privilege of observing and participating in its evolution from various vantage points. My journey has taken me from serving as a dedicated volunteer holding critical leadership roles, including serving on the supervisory committee, as director, and as board chairman, culminating in my tenure as CEO for 12 years and now founder and President/CEO of the National Council of Firefighter Credit Unions . This extensive background has enabled me to " Sit On Both Sides Of The Desk ," blending operational expertise with strategic oversight. In this blog post, I want to share how this dual perspective has enriched my understanding of credit union dynamics and fostered more effective governance. By leveraging the insights gained from years spent navigating both the intricacies of daily operations and the broader strategic objectives, I have witnessed firsthand the transformative power of collaboration, communi...
Post a Comment
Read Complete Article HERE>»

How To Make Decisions With Conviction—Even Under Pressure

Why strong leaders act when others hesitate — and how to develop that confidence without needing every answer. I’ve watched smart, experienced leaders freeze. And I’ve been in that same position myself. It’s not because we lack information, but because we don’t feel ready to choose. Leaders often get stuck because they’re waiting for the perfect moment to act. They’re thinking through the consequences, weighing the trade-offs, trying to get it right. But the longer they wait, the harder it becomes to move at all. The truth is that the worst decision isn’t always the wrong one. It’s the one you never make. If you’re in a leadership role, you don’t always get the luxury of knowing. You have to move anyway. Not recklessly, not blindly, but with clarity, purpose and conviction. In high-pressure moments, the gap between average leaders and great ones gets exposed. It’s not a gap in intelligence or experience. It’s a gap in decisiveness. Because conviction doesn’t mean certainty—it means mak...
Post a Comment
Read Complete Article HERE>»

Live - Podcast Understanding The Importance P&L Statements

A Weekly Dose of Innovation for Credit Unions Serving First Responders Welcome to the NCOFCU Podcast: Your Weekly Dose of Innovation. Hosted by Grant Sheehan CCUE | CCUP | CEO, NCOFCU, this podcast is your definitive source for the latest news, insights, and trends in the first responder credit union world.
Post a Comment
Read Complete Article HERE>»

Fed Kicks Off Two-Days of Meetings Today as Critics, Proponents Respond to Rate Increases; Plus, What CUs Should Expect

CUToday WASHINGTON–The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) will kick off two days of meetings today and the decision they announce tomorrow will affect everything from the major U.S. markets to credit unions that are seeing strong loan growth to individual credit union members struggling with monthly bills. The FOMC is widely expected to again raise its benchmark rate as it seeks to cool raging inflation. Among those expecting rates to be higher by Wednesday afternoon is CUNA’s chief economist, Mike Schenk, who expects the Fed will push up rates by 75 basis points. That follows the full one percentage point increase made during the Fed’s July meeting. “That’s pretty substantial, but inflation is over 9%,” said Schenk...
Post a Comment
Read Complete Article HERE>»