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‘A Few More Reports Like This One,’ & Fed May Move to Cut Rates, Says NAFCU Economist Kurt Long

WASHINGTON–Hiring during October cooled considerably, according to new data released last week by the Labor Department.

After several months of strong job reports, the new report shows U.S. employers added 150,000 jobs in October, down from the previous month’s revised gain of 297,000.

According to the department, those numbers mark the smallest gain since June, with automakers having around 33,000 fewer workers on payroll because of the United Auto Workers strike. The unemployment rate rose to 3.9% from 3.8% the prior month.

thumbnail_New Labor Numbers Chart

‘A Clear Signal’

"The October employment report sends a clear signal that the labor market is cooling,” said NAFCU VP-Research and Chief Economist Curt Long. “A broad range of measures fell during the month, including employment, labor force participation, and wage growth. Furthermore, there were substantial downward revisions to prior month job gains. NAFCU continues to believe that Fed hikes are finished during this cycle, but a couple more reports like this one will have the FOMC considering a rate cut as early as Q1." 

As CUToday.info reported, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) adjourned last week without raising rates, indicating it could do so when it meets again in December, depending on the data.

Rates are currently at a 22-year high.

Other Data Points

According to the new Labor Department numbers:

  •  Average hourly earnings rose 4.1% from a year ago, the department said, down from 4.3% in September.
  • The share of people working or looking for work fell slightly to 62.7% in October from 62.8% in September.
  • Healthcare industries and governments added more than 50,000 jobs each in October, while transportation and warehousing lost 12,000. Employment was also down in the information industry, due in part to the strike by TV and film actors.

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