Skip to main content

‘A Few More Reports Like This One,’ & Fed May Move to Cut Rates, Says NAFCU Economist Kurt Long

WASHINGTON–Hiring during October cooled considerably, according to new data released last week by the Labor Department.

After several months of strong job reports, the new report shows U.S. employers added 150,000 jobs in October, down from the previous month’s revised gain of 297,000.

According to the department, those numbers mark the smallest gain since June, with automakers having around 33,000 fewer workers on payroll because of the United Auto Workers strike. The unemployment rate rose to 3.9% from 3.8% the prior month.

thumbnail_New Labor Numbers Chart

‘A Clear Signal’

"The October employment report sends a clear signal that the labor market is cooling,” said NAFCU VP-Research and Chief Economist Curt Long. “A broad range of measures fell during the month, including employment, labor force participation, and wage growth. Furthermore, there were substantial downward revisions to prior month job gains. NAFCU continues to believe that Fed hikes are finished during this cycle, but a couple more reports like this one will have the FOMC considering a rate cut as early as Q1." 

As CUToday.info reported, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) adjourned last week without raising rates, indicating it could do so when it meets again in December, depending on the data.

Rates are currently at a 22-year high.

Other Data Points

According to the new Labor Department numbers:

  •  Average hourly earnings rose 4.1% from a year ago, the department said, down from 4.3% in September.
  • The share of people working or looking for work fell slightly to 62.7% in October from 62.8% in September.
  • Healthcare industries and governments added more than 50,000 jobs each in October, while transportation and warehousing lost 12,000. Employment was also down in the information industry, due in part to the strike by TV and film actors.

Comments

Post a Comment

Please no profanity or political comments.

Popular posts from this blog

Both Sides of The Desk!

With over 50 years of experience in the credit union sector, I have had the privilege of observing and participating in its evolution from various vantage points. My journey has taken me from serving as a dedicated volunteer holding critical leadership roles, including serving on the supervisory committee, as director, and as board chairman, culminating in my tenure as CEO for 12 years and now founder and President/CEO of the National Council of Firefighter Credit Unions . This extensive background has enabled me to " Sit On Both Sides Of The Desk ," blending operational expertise with strategic oversight. In this blog post, I want to share how this dual perspective has enriched my understanding of credit union dynamics and fostered more effective governance. By leveraging the insights gained from years spent navigating both the intricacies of daily operations and the broader strategic objectives, I have witnessed firsthand the transformative power of collaboration, communi...
Post a Comment
Read Complete Article HERE>»

Unlocking the Power of Emeritus Board Positions in Credit Unions

  Explore how the Emeritus Board Position in credit unions honors long-serving members, offering them a chance to mentor new leaders while maintaining strategic influence without the responsibilities of active board roles.
Post a Comment
Read Complete Article HERE>»

How To Make Decisions With Conviction—Even Under Pressure

Why strong leaders act when others hesitate — and how to develop that confidence without needing every answer. I’ve watched smart, experienced leaders freeze. And I’ve been in that same position myself. It’s not because we lack information, but because we don’t feel ready to choose. Leaders often get stuck because they’re waiting for the perfect moment to act. They’re thinking through the consequences, weighing the trade-offs, trying to get it right. But the longer they wait, the harder it becomes to move at all. The truth is that the worst decision isn’t always the wrong one. It’s the one you never make. If you’re in a leadership role, you don’t always get the luxury of knowing. You have to move anyway. Not recklessly, not blindly, but with clarity, purpose and conviction. In high-pressure moments, the gap between average leaders and great ones gets exposed. It’s not a gap in intelligence or experience. It’s a gap in decisiveness. Because conviction doesn’t mean certainty—it means mak...
Post a Comment
Read Complete Article HERE>»

Fed Kicks Off Two-Days of Meetings Today as Critics, Proponents Respond to Rate Increases; Plus, What CUs Should Expect

CUToday WASHINGTON–The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) will kick off two days of meetings today and the decision they announce tomorrow will affect everything from the major U.S. markets to credit unions that are seeing strong loan growth to individual credit union members struggling with monthly bills. The FOMC is widely expected to again raise its benchmark rate as it seeks to cool raging inflation. Among those expecting rates to be higher by Wednesday afternoon is CUNA’s chief economist, Mike Schenk, who expects the Fed will push up rates by 75 basis points. That follows the full one percentage point increase made during the Fed’s July meeting. “That’s pretty substantial, but inflation is over 9%,” said Schenk...
Post a Comment
Read Complete Article HERE>»

Live - Podcast Understanding The Importance P&L Statements

A Weekly Dose of Innovation for Credit Unions Serving First Responders Welcome to the NCOFCU Podcast: Your Weekly Dose of Innovation. Hosted by Grant Sheehan CCUE | CCUP | CEO, NCOFCU, this podcast is your definitive source for the latest news, insights, and trends in the first responder credit union world.
Post a Comment
Read Complete Article HERE>»