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Showing posts from February, 2023

TUNNEL TO TOWERS - FALLEN FIRST RESPONDER HOME PROGRAM

 

Modest Recession to Occur in Q2, Says New Fannie Mae Forecast; Plus Other Predictions

WASHINGTON—While the economy is off to a “surprising” start in 2023, expect a modest recession in the second quarter of the year, according to a new forecast from Fannie Mae. “Due to economic headwinds from unsustainably high consumer spending relative to income, significant declines in monetary aggregates, an increasingly inverted yield curve, and stickier-than-expected inflationary pressures,” the Fannie Mae Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group said it continues to forecast the economy will fall into a modest recession and now believe the likely start date will be in the second quarter of 2023. As CUToday.info has reported, a series of recent data releases, including a blowout labor report, updated seasonal adjustment factors to the ...

A Look at What Newly Released Fed Minutes Reveal - Curt Long NAFCU Chief Economist and VP-Research

Curt will be presenting the state of the economy at our conference in Clearwater Beach from 10/3-6/23 WASHINGTON–Newly released minutes from the Federal Reserve’s most recent meeting shows nearly all of the policymakers supported the decision to continue to slow the pace of interest rate hikes, but also indicated that curbing inflation will remain the “key factor” in how much longer (and how much higher) the rate increases will continue. The minutes seem to suggest a compromise between those on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) who are worried about a slowing economy and those who are convinced inflation will prove to be persistent, and that the shift to smaller-sized hikes are merited by the inflation data. ...

Tower Climb NYC Registration Now Open!

     

Used Vehicle Prices Continue to Keep Foot on the Brake

02/14/2023 CUToday LAWRENCEVILLE, Ga.—Used vehicle values continued to slide in January as the used car market returns to more normal depreciation levels following an extended period of price gains, according to Black Book. The company said depreciation will likely slow as Spring arrives. Black Book Used Vehicle Retention Index for January decreased 1.0% (1.7 points) to 167.7 from December 2022, which is 14.9% below where it was at the same time in 2022 and 46.4% above March 2020, pre-pandemic. “Wholesale prices for the two-six-year-old vehicle segments that comprise Black Book’s Used Vehicle Retention Index declined in January, but the rate of decline is slowin...

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Proposed FOM changes would streamline ability to reach underserved

February 16, 2023 The NCUA Board proposed chartering and field-of-membership changes and issued its final cyber incident reporting rule at its Thursday meeting. The board also heard a quarterly update on the share insurance fund, which noted an increase in the fund's equity ratio to 1.30%." The proposal would amend the chartering and FOM rules through nine changes to enhance consumer access to financial services, especially in low- and moderate-income communities while reducing duplicative or unnecessary paperwork and administrative requirements. “Getting credit union services to more communities across the country is important to CUNA, state leagues and the credit unions we serve, and making that easier to achieve has a big impact on access,” said CUNA Deputy Chief Advocacy Officer Jason Stverak. “While we need to review the proposal in detail, we thank the NCUA board for working to streamline the ability of credit un...

NCUA Board Meeting Coverage: NCUA Approves New Cyber Incident Reporting Rule

02/16/2023 CUToday ALEXANDRIA, Va.–By a 3-0 vote, the NCUA board has approved a final rule on cyber incident reporting for federally insured credit unions. The rule requires credit unions to inform NCUA of any “reportable” incident within 72 hours. Such incidents are those where the credit union “reasonably believes” a cyber incident has occurred, with such events defined as those in which the integrity, confidentiality or availability of information has been compromised. The rule is to go into effect on Sept. 1, 2023. Todd Harper The NCUA board was updated on the rule by Ke...

Fed’s Powell: Strong hiring could force further rate hikes

By CHRISTOPHER RUGABER WASHINGTON (AP) — Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Tuesday that if the U.S. job market further strengthens in the coming months or inflation readings accelerate, the Fed might have to raise its benchmark interest rate higher than it now projects. Powell’s remarks followed the government’s blockbuster report last week that employers added 517,000 jobs in January , nearly double December’s gain. The unemployment rate fell to its lowest level in 53 years, 3.4%. “The reality is if we continue to get strong labor market reports or higher inflation reports, it might be the case that we have to raise rates more” than is now expected, Powell said in remarks to the Economic Club of Washington. Though price pressures are easing and Powell said he envisions a “significant” decline in inflation this year, he cautioned that so far the central bank is seeing only “the very early stages of disinflation. It has a long way to go.” Even as the Fed has raised r...

Consumer Price Data Show Inflation Remains Stronger Than Many Had Expected; Here’s What CU Economists Say

WASHINGTON–For the seventh straight month, inflation showed moderation in January, but not to the degree many had hoped and forecast. Dr. Dawit Kebede According to the new federal data, the Consumer Price Index revealed consumer prices increased 6.4% year-over-year in January, down slightly from 6.5% one month earlier.  Monthly prices in January increased 0.5%, a faster rate compared to the previous two months. Analysts, including  CUNA Senior Economist Dawit Kebede, noted the numbers came in higher than expected.   “Increase in housing prices contributed for half of the monthly rise. Its contribution to core consumer price index (CPI), exclud...

Most Americans Worried About Recession (Even If They Can’t Define It); Half Say They Could Lose Everything

ST. LOUIS–Three-in-four Americans are worried there will be a recession in 2023, while 69% say one is already here, according to a new Real Estate Witch poll that further found many are also questioning capitalism. But as Real Estate Witch also acknowledged, “Americans’ scathing assessment of the economy may be shaped more by fear than facts, as more than three-fourths of Americans (77%) say they know the definition of a recession, but just 15% can actually identify the correct answer.” As the company noted, a recession is loosely defined as two consecutive quarters of GDP decline. Among the other findings: 63% are pessimistic about how the economy will perform in 2023. 64% believe fear of a recession could lead to a self-fulfilling...

Total Consumer Credit Rose in December; Here’s How CU Share Compares to Others

Curt Long will be at our Clearwater Beach Conference ARLINGTON, Va.—Total consumer credit rose 2.9% at a seasonally adjusted, annualized rate in December and is up 7.8% compared to a year ago, according to new federal data. Curt Long Revolving credit – primarily credit cards – rose 7.3% and is up 14.8% compared to December 2021. Non-revolving credit – primarily auto loans and education loans – rose 1.5% during the month and is up 5.6% from a year ago. “Consumer credit grew by $11.6 billion in December, a figure less than half of what analysts expected. Revolving debt growth decelerated during the month, consistent with a 1.8% dip in retail sales during the...

Trade Groups Push Back on Biden's State of the Union Comments About 'Junk Fees,' OD Costs, CFPB Proposal

 WASHINGTON–Both credit union trade associations are pushing back on remarks made by President Joe Biden during his State of the Union speech last night related to junk fees. While the junk fees reference included a range of such fees the Administration is proposing be eliminated, Biden did make reference to a recent CFPB proposal related to credit card fees, as well as overdraft fees. Broadly, the president said, “My administration is also taking on junk fees, those hidden surcharges too many businesses use to make you pay more.” President Biden delivers State of the Union address Tuesday night. Specifically, Biden pointed to “exorbitant bank overdraft...

3 Reasons Now Is The Perfect Time To Offer A Lease Program

Borrowers look to credit unions for the best rates on conventional loans but use competitors for alternative low-payment financing options that incorporate residual values. Sponsored Content By Auto Financial Group According to Experian’s State of the Automotive Finance Market Report , 1 in 5 borrowers financing a new car use some form of residual-based financing. Your borrowers look to you for the best rates on conventional loans but are forced to captives and your competitors for alternative low-payment financing options that incorporate residual values. If you’d like to recapture these loans to attract new members, it might be time to consider a lease program. Here are three reasons why credit unions should offer this kind of financing. Reason No. ...

New Study Reveals Why Not Investing in the Work-From-Home Office of Hybrid Employees Has Dire Consequences

By Gleb Tsipursky • Feb 3, 2023            A new study by Logitech of 3,000 employees and 1,000 IT hardware decision-makers in large organizations found that 89% struggle with video and 85% with audio in their work-from-home office . Less than 40% received accessories other than mice and keyboards from their organizations. While these results are concerning, I didn't find them surprising. When working with client organizations to help them figure out the best hybrid work arrangements , I invariably get pushback when I bring up investing in hybrid worker home offices. CFOs don't want to "waste" money on employee home offices after already paying for a set-up at the office; in turn, IT and facilities directors express reluctance to stretch their already-t...

Vehicle Sales Keeping The Foot on the Gas; Plus, CUNA Releases Inaugural CU Auto Lending Monthly Report Findings

 ARLINGTON, Va.—Total vehicle sales saw robust growth at the beginning of 2023 rising from 13.9 million annualized units in December to 16.2 million units in January, with monthly sales levels rising 7.2% year-over-year. Meanwhile, CUNA has released its inaugural Credit Union Auto Lending Report, which offers insights on trends in auto lending among credit unions. Noah Yosif “Auto sales are off to a strong start in 2023 given subsiding supply-related headwinds,” said NAFCU Economist Noah Yosif. “This should foster a migration in demand toward new vehicles relative to used vehicles. However, recovery in the new vehicle market may not enable a similar i...

'Upside in a Major Way': New Data Show 517,000 Jobs Added

WASHINGTON–Hiring surged in January with 517,000 jobs being created, according to new data from the Labor department. As a result, unemployment fell to 3.4%, the lowest rate in more than 53 years. Average hourly earnings also increased 4.4% in January from a year earlier, down from a revised 4.8% in December, according to the Labor Department, which said the payroll gains during the year’s first month were the largest since July 2022, bringing to an end a string of five straight months of slowing employment growth. Curt Long "The January jobs report surprised to the upside in a major way. Even acknowledging the typical volatility in January reports, t...

Improving Operational Efficiency Via the ITM-ATM Channel

Joe Woods, CUDE SVP, Marketing & Partnerships Dolphin Debit Access  Improving Operational Efficiency Via the ITM-ATM Channel It has been said again and again that our job economy remains strong.  Companies are reportedly hiring new employees, whether it is to fill a vacancy or expand operations.  However, this is not what I am experiencing as I go about my professional and personal life. I repeatedly run into “longer than normal” call wait times when dealing with a customer service issue over the phone.  One such situation with a cable company that promised to “wow” me, caused me to spend over 45 minutes on hold on three separate occasions just to speak to a representative.  Online help chats are even taking far too long to switch from the AI bot over to human interaction.  And I still see many lobbies and restaurants that have closed their in-store service indefinitely.  It is clear to me that numbers are askew when it comes to “official...

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